United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 MARCH 17 SUNDAY this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom & by conference) (3) teams listed by DIVISION (listed in order within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 84. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings directly over their respective columns. The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters. PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN, and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.NEXTRA= 105 KEY= 5559 BOWVAL= 0 NMINUS= 0 METHOD=BLUEPredictions_with_Totals
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 1 Boston Celtics = 99.87 53 14 89.88( 19) 12 7 | 24 12 | 99.84 1 | 99.48 1 | 100.99 1 ATLANTIC 2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 96.12 47 20 89.80( 21) 14 5 | 22 11 | 96.39 2 | 95.90 3 | 95.90 2 northwest 3 Minnesota Timberwolves = 95.74 46 21 90.15( 12) 11 10 | 21 15 | 95.93 3 | 96.05 2 | 94.95 5 northwest 4 Denver Nuggets = 94.67 47 21 90.13( 13) 9 10 | 19 17 | 94.36 5 | 94.91 4 | 95.24 3 northwest 5 New Orleans Pelicans = 94.40 41 26 89.92( 17) 10 10 | 20 14 | 94.48 4 | 93.98 5 | 95.00 4 southwest 6 Los Angeles Clippers = 93.68 42 25 90.33( 8) 8 15 | 17 18 | 93.80 6 | 93.96 6 | 93.01 8 pacific 7 Cleveland Cavaliers = 93.34 42 25 89.58( 26) 8 10 | 16 17 | 93.48 8 | 93.24 7 | 93.23 7 CENTRAL 8 Milwaukee Bucks = 93.31 44 24 89.57( 27) 12 7 | 21 14 | 93.12 9 | 93.23 8 | 94.05 6 CENTRAL 9 New York Knicks = 93.28 40 27 89.79( 22) 7 14 | 13 23 | 93.53 7 | 93.18 9 | 92.85 9 ATLANTIC 10 Phoenix Suns = 92.03 39 29 89.54( 29) 6 9 | 14 17 | 91.97 10 | 91.96 10 | 92.38 11 pacific NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 11 Golden State Warriors = 92.03 35 31 90.34( 7) 7 20 | 13 24 | 91.95 11 | 91.89 12 | 92.54 10 pacific 12 Dallas Mavericks = 91.66 39 29 90.25( 10) 10 18 | 15 23 | 91.48 13 | 91.59 13 | 92.29 12 southwest 13 Sacramento Kings = 91.57 38 28 90.69( 2) 12 15 | 18 19 | 91.41 14 | 91.91 11 | 91.49 14 pacific 14 Indiana Pacers = 91.38 38 31 89.84( 20) 13 12 | 19 17 | 91.23 15 | 91.37 15 | 91.87 13 CENTRAL 15 Orlando Magic = 91.23 40 28 89.72( 25) 11 11 | 13 18 | 91.02 16 | 91.52 14 | 91.32 15 SOUTHEAST 16 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.14 37 30 89.49( 30) 8 14 | 13 19 | 91.90 12 | 91.17 16 | 89.18 20 ATLANTIC 17 Miami Heat = 90.43 37 30 89.56( 28) 3 18 | 12 21 | 90.23 19 | 90.79 17 | 90.41 16 SOUTHEAST 18 Houston Rockets = 90.36 32 35 90.33( 9) 11 16 | 15 24 | 90.51 17 | 90.34 19 | 90.00 18 southwest 19 Los Angeles Lakers = 90.34 37 32 90.59( 3) 16 12 | 20 22 | 90.29 18 | 90.51 18 | 90.20 17 pacific 20 Chicago Bulls = 88.59 33 35 89.88( 18) 5 17 | 11 26 | 88.27 21 | 88.57 20 | 89.45 19 CENTRAL NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 21 Atlanta Hawks = 88.43 30 37 89.75( 23) 8 12 | 14 22 | 88.39 20 | 88.37 21 | 88.63 21 SOUTHEAST 22 Brooklyn Nets = 87.39 26 42 90.04( 14) 4 19 | 8 28 | 87.71 22 | 87.60 23 | 86.05 23 ATLANTIC 23 Utah Jazz = 87.18 29 38 90.22( 11) 8 18 | 11 27 | 86.97 23 | 87.71 22 | 86.80 22 northwest 24 Toronto Raptors = 85.63 23 45 90.02( 15) 4 18 | 8 28 | 85.93 24 | 85.64 24 | 84.66 25 ATLANTIC 25 Memphis Grizzlies = 84.87 23 45 90.47( 5) 5 21 | 11 27 | 84.79 25 | 85.00 25 | 84.77 24 southwest 26 San Antonio Spurs = 83.77 15 53 90.77( 1) 4 20 | 6 32 | 83.66 26 | 83.39 27 | 84.45 26 southwest 27 Portland Trail Blazers = 83.10 19 48 90.58( 4) 3 23 | 7 33 | 82.94 27 | 83.52 26 | 82.68 28 northwest 28 Detroit Pistons = 82.45 12 55 89.96( 16) 1 20 | 2 34 | 82.38 28 | 81.39 28 | 83.65 27 CENTRAL 29 Charlotte Hornets = 81.15 17 51 89.72( 24) 2 17 | 5 28 | 80.97 30 | 81.22 29 | 81.36 29 SOUTHEAST 30 Washington Wizards = 80.87 11 57 90.45( 6) 0 23 | 1 38 | 81.06 29 | 80.62 30 | 80.59 30 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 northwest = 92.12 91.36 ( 3) 5 91.51 ( 2) 2 pacific = 91.92 91.93 ( 1) 5 91.93 ( 1) 3 ATLANTIC = 91.14 91.46 ( 2) 5 91.35 ( 3) 4 CENTRAL = 90.42 89.82 ( 4) 5 89.93 ( 4) 5 southwest = 89.14 89.01 ( 5) 5 89.03 ( 5) 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.73 86.42 ( 6) 5 86.48 ( 6) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 3 ATLANTIC = 91.14 91.46 ( 2) 5 91.35 ( 3) 4 CENTRAL = 90.42 89.82 ( 4) 5 89.93 ( 4) 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.73 86.42 ( 6) 5 86.48 ( 6) 5 southwest = 89.14 89.01 ( 5) 5 89.03 ( 5) 1 northwest = 92.12 91.36 ( 3) 5 91.51 ( 2) 2 pacific = 91.92 91.93 ( 1) 5 91.93 ( 1) __________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 ATLANTIC = 91.14 91.46 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 91.35 ( 3) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 1 Boston Celtics = 99.87 53 14 89.88( 19) 12 7 | 24 12 | 99.84 1 | 99.48 1 | 100.99 1 ATLANTIC 9 New York Knicks = 93.28 40 27 89.79( 22) 7 14 | 13 23 | 93.53 7 | 93.18 9 | 92.85 9 ATLANTIC 16 Philadelphia 76ers = 91.14 37 30 89.49( 30) 8 14 | 13 19 | 91.90 12 | 91.17 16 | 89.18 20 ATLANTIC 22 Brooklyn Nets = 87.39 26 42 90.04( 14) 4 19 | 8 28 | 87.71 22 | 87.60 23 | 86.05 23 ATLANTIC 24 Toronto Raptors = 85.63 23 45 90.02( 15) 4 18 | 8 28 | 85.93 24 | 85.64 24 | 84.66 25 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 CENTRAL = 90.42 89.82 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 89.93 ( 4) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 7 Cleveland Cavaliers = 93.34 42 25 89.58( 26) 8 10 | 16 17 | 93.48 8 | 93.24 7 | 93.23 7 CENTRAL 8 Milwaukee Bucks = 93.31 44 24 89.57( 27) 12 7 | 21 14 | 93.12 9 | 93.23 8 | 94.05 6 CENTRAL 14 Indiana Pacers = 91.38 38 31 89.84( 20) 13 12 | 19 17 | 91.23 15 | 91.37 15 | 91.87 13 CENTRAL 20 Chicago Bulls = 88.59 33 35 89.88( 18) 5 17 | 11 26 | 88.27 21 | 88.57 20 | 89.45 19 CENTRAL 28 Detroit Pistons = 82.45 12 55 89.96( 16) 1 20 | 2 34 | 82.38 28 | 81.39 28 | 83.65 27 CENTRAL _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 SOUTHEAST = 86.73 86.42 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 86.48 ( 6) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 15 Orlando Magic = 91.23 40 28 89.72( 25) 11 11 | 13 18 | 91.02 16 | 91.52 14 | 91.32 15 SOUTHEAST 17 Miami Heat = 90.43 37 30 89.56( 28) 3 18 | 12 21 | 90.23 19 | 90.79 17 | 90.41 16 SOUTHEAST 21 Atlanta Hawks = 88.43 30 37 89.75( 23) 8 12 | 14 22 | 88.39 20 | 88.37 21 | 88.63 21 SOUTHEAST 29 Charlotte Hornets = 81.15 17 51 89.72( 24) 2 17 | 5 28 | 80.97 30 | 81.22 29 | 81.36 29 SOUTHEAST 30 Washington Wizards = 80.87 11 57 90.45( 6) 0 23 | 1 38 | 81.06 29 | 80.62 30 | 80.59 30 SOUTHEAST _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 southwest = 89.14 89.01 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 89.03 ( 5) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 5 New Orleans Pelicans = 94.40 41 26 89.92( 17) 10 10 | 20 14 | 94.48 4 | 93.98 5 | 95.00 4 southwest 12 Dallas Mavericks = 91.66 39 29 90.25( 10) 10 18 | 15 23 | 91.48 13 | 91.59 13 | 92.29 12 southwest 18 Houston Rockets = 90.36 32 35 90.33( 9) 11 16 | 15 24 | 90.51 17 | 90.34 19 | 90.00 18 southwest 25 Memphis Grizzlies = 84.87 23 45 90.47( 5) 5 21 | 11 27 | 84.79 25 | 85.00 25 | 84.77 24 southwest 26 San Antonio Spurs = 83.77 15 53 90.77( 1) 4 20 | 6 32 | 83.66 26 | 83.39 27 | 84.45 26 southwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 northwest = 92.12 91.36 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 91.51 ( 2) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 2 Oklahoma City Thunder = 96.12 47 20 89.80( 21) 14 5 | 22 11 | 96.39 2 | 95.90 3 | 95.90 2 northwest 3 Minnesota Timberwolves = 95.74 46 21 90.15( 12) 11 10 | 21 15 | 95.93 3 | 96.05 2 | 94.95 5 northwest 4 Denver Nuggets = 94.67 47 21 90.13( 13) 9 10 | 19 17 | 94.36 5 | 94.91 4 | 95.24 3 northwest 23 Utah Jazz = 87.18 29 38 90.22( 11) 8 18 | 11 27 | 86.97 23 | 87.71 22 | 86.80 22 northwest 27 Portland Trail Blazers = 83.10 19 48 90.58( 4) 3 23 | 7 33 | 82.94 27 | 83.52 26 | 82.68 28 northwest _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 pacific = 91.92 91.93 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 91.93 ( 1) NBA 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.98] [ 2.06] [ 1.94] [ 1.81] 6 Los Angeles Clippers = 93.68 42 25 90.33( 8) 8 15 | 17 18 | 93.80 6 | 93.96 6 | 93.01 8 pacific 10 Phoenix Suns = 92.03 39 29 89.54( 29) 6 9 | 14 17 | 91.97 10 | 91.96 10 | 92.38 11 pacific 11 Golden State Warriors = 92.03 35 31 90.34( 7) 7 20 | 13 24 | 91.95 11 | 91.89 12 | 92.54 10 pacific 13 Sacramento Kings = 91.57 38 28 90.69( 2) 12 15 | 18 19 | 91.41 14 | 91.91 11 | 91.49 14 pacific 19 Los Angeles Lakers = 90.34 37 32 90.59( 3) 16 12 | 20 22 | 90.29 18 | 90.51 18 | 90.20 17 pacific 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Predictions_with_Totals
These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== BOSTON CELTICS 19.40 19.52 20.03 19.15 detroit pistons 868 90% 232.33 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 2.68 3.74 2.33 0.58 miami heat 140 58% 218.04 INDIANA PACERS 0.02 -0.19 0.07 0.46 cleveland cavaliers 100 50% 234.92 CHICAGO BULLS 7.47 7.39 6.99 8.58 portland trail blaze 247 71% 220.41 minnesota timberwolv 6.58 6.90 6.39 6.34 UTAH JAZZ 223 69% 226.86 LOS ANGELES LAKERS 3.89 3.96 4.09 3.39 atlanta hawks 162 62% 244.41 SACRAMENTO KINGS 8.69 8.68 8.85 8.54 memphis grizzlies 284 74% 225.70 GOLDEN STATE WARRIOR 0.73 0.49 0.65 1.50 new york knicks 110 52% 225.90 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Celtics 20.09 922 90% Detroit Pistons 2 @ Philadelphia 76ers 2.80 142 59% Miami Heat 3 @ Indiana Pacers 1.01 114 53% Cleveland Cavaliers 4 @ Chicago Bulls 7.40 245 71% Portland Trail Blaze 5 Minnesota Timberwolv 7.34 243 71% @ Utah Jazz 6 @ Los Angeles Lakers 5.08 187 65% Atlanta Hawks 7 @ Sacramento Kings 8.76 286 74% Memphis Grizzlies 8 @ Golden State Warrior 0.52 107 52% New York Knicks endfileTop_of_Page