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Jeff Sagarin'stm NBA Ratings


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NBA 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2019 MAY 23 THURSDAY - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by  7  points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   1  Golden State Warriors   =  97.84   69  29   90.39(  11)   21  15  |   36  23  |   97.58    2 |   97.45    1 |   99.15    2  pacific
   2  Milwaukee Bucks         =  97.02   70  26   89.79(  27)   20  12  |   32  17  |   97.72    1 |   97.19    2 |   95.34    4  CENTRAL
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.16   69  30   90.10(  20)   19  17  |   36  22  |   95.62    3 |   96.14    3 |  100.13    1  ATLANTIC
   4  Utah Jazz               =  94.74   51  36   90.33(  14)   12  20  |   20  28  |   95.14    5 |   94.07    6 |   93.54    5  northwest
   5  Houston Rockets         =  94.62   59  34   90.94(   2)   21  17  |   32  23  |   95.45    4 |   95.53    4 |   92.46    9  southwest
   6  Denver Nuggets          =  93.65   61  35   90.57(   5)   18  17  |   34  25  |   93.85    7 |   93.98    7 |   93.01    8  northwest
   7  Philadelphia 76ers      =  93.57   58  36   89.97(  25)   12  18  |   24  23  |   93.01   10 |   93.52    9 |   96.47    3  ATLANTIC
   8  Boston Celtics          =  93.45   54  37   90.03(  23)   10  18  |   21  28  |   93.99    6 |   94.16    5 |   91.83   10  ATLANTIC
   9  Portland Trail Blazers  =  93.43   61  37   91.01(   1)   21  22  |   32  29  |   93.56    8 |   93.95    8 |   93.01    7  northwest
  10  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  93.12   50  37   90.36(  13)   17  15  |   26  22  |   93.08    9 |   93.04   10 |   93.27    6  northwest
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
  11  San Antonio Spurs       =  91.75   51  38   90.46(   8)   18  18  |   25  25  |   91.88   11 |   91.99   12 |   91.33   12  southwest
  12  Indiana Pacers          =  90.81   48  38   89.76(  29)    8  23  |   15  29  |   91.44   12 |   92.07   11 |   88.60   17  CENTRAL
  13  Los Angeles Clippers    =  90.33   50  38   90.81(   3)   13  23  |   21  29  |   90.98   13 |   91.21   13 |   87.96   19  pacific
  14  Miami Heat              =  89.81   39  43   89.79(  28)    9  18  |   13  27  |   89.74   14 |   89.50   15 |   90.06   16  SOUTHEAST
  15  Los Angeles Lakers      =  89.64   37  45   90.36(  12)    9  21  |   15  29  |   89.22   15 |   89.84   14 |   91.18   13  pacific
  16  Orlando Magic           =  89.63   43  44   90.14(  18)   12  19  |   21  24  |   89.06   18 |   88.97   17 |   91.75   11  SOUTHEAST
  17  Charlotte Hornets       =  89.39   39  43   89.81(  26)    6  21  |   13  31  |   88.93   20 |   88.71   20 |   91.03   15  SOUTHEAST
  18  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.80   36  46   90.49(   6)    8  23  |   17  31  |   89.10   17 |   89.12   16 |   87.67   22  northwest
  19  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.69   33  49   90.45(   9)   11  19  |   18  29  |   87.99   24 |   87.71   24 |   91.12   14  southwest
  20  Detroit Pistons         =  88.64   41  45   90.14(  19)    9  22  |   17  32  |   88.94   19 |   88.94   18 |   87.50   23  CENTRAL
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
  21  Dallas Mavericks        =  88.55   33  49   90.47(   7)   12  19  |   16  32  |   88.59   21 |   88.16   22 |   88.43   18  southwest
  22  New Orleans Pelicans    =  88.54   33  49   90.25(  15)    8  21  |   12  34  |   89.22   16 |   88.89   19 |   85.62   25  southwest
  23  Brooklyn Nets           =  88.37   43  44   90.10(  21)   10  23  |   18  31  |   88.54   22 |   88.52   21 |   87.77   21  ATLANTIC
  24  Sacramento Kings        =  88.05   39  43   90.40(  10)    6  24  |   15  32  |   88.43   23 |   88.10   23 |   86.54   24  pacific
  25  Washington Wizards      =  86.86   32  50   89.71(  30)    6  19  |   13  30  |   87.49   25 |   87.61   25 |   83.66   28  SOUTHEAST
  26  Atlanta Hawks           =  85.03   29  53   89.98(  24)    7  20  |   12  33  |   83.79   26 |   83.69   26 |   87.90   20  SOUTHEAST
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  82.83   19  63   90.66(   4)    5  25  |    9  39  |   81.95   28 |   82.13   28 |   84.81   26  pacific
  28  Chicago Bulls           =  82.47   22  60   90.05(  22)    3  24  |    7  37  |   82.60   27 |   82.59   27 |   81.96   30  CENTRAL
  29  New York Knicks         =  82.42   17  65   90.20(  16)    2  26  |    6  39  |   81.49   30 |   81.41   30 |   84.43   27  ATLANTIC
  30  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  81.81   19  63   90.19(  17)    4  23  |    7  37  |   81.60   29 |   81.79   29 |   82.46   29  CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  northwest               =  93.04      92.75  (  1)      5      92.77  (  1)
   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.42      90.79  (  2)      5      90.95  (  2)
   3  southwest               =  89.98      90.43  (  3)      5      90.41  (  3)
   4  pacific                 =  89.59      89.74  (  4)      5      89.66  (  4)
   5  SOUTHEAST               =  88.44      88.14  (  6)      5      88.15  (  5)
   6  CENTRAL                 =  87.92      88.15  (  5)      5      88.06  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.42      90.79  (  2)      5      90.95  (  2)
   6  CENTRAL                 =  87.92      88.15  (  5)      5      88.06  (  6)
   5  SOUTHEAST               =  88.44      88.14  (  6)      5      88.15  (  5)
   3  southwest               =  89.98      90.43  (  3)      5      90.41  (  3)
   1  northwest               =  93.04      92.75  (  1)      5      92.77  (  1)
   4  pacific                 =  89.59      89.74  (  4)      5      89.66  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  ATLANTIC                =  91.42      90.79  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      90.95  (  2)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.16   69  30   90.10(  20)   19  17  |   36  22  |   95.62    3 |   96.14    3 |  100.13    1  ATLANTIC
   7  Philadelphia 76ers      =  93.57   58  36   89.97(  25)   12  18  |   24  23  |   93.01   10 |   93.52    9 |   96.47    3  ATLANTIC
   8  Boston Celtics          =  93.45   54  37   90.03(  23)   10  18  |   21  28  |   93.99    6 |   94.16    5 |   91.83   10  ATLANTIC
  23  Brooklyn Nets           =  88.37   43  44   90.10(  21)   10  23  |   18  31  |   88.54   22 |   88.52   21 |   87.77   21  ATLANTIC
  29  New York Knicks         =  82.42   17  65   90.20(  16)    2  26  |    6  39  |   81.49   30 |   81.41   30 |   84.43   27  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  CENTRAL                 =  87.92      88.15  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      88.06  (  6)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   2  Milwaukee Bucks         =  97.02   70  26   89.79(  27)   20  12  |   32  17  |   97.72    1 |   97.19    2 |   95.34    4  CENTRAL
  12  Indiana Pacers          =  90.81   48  38   89.76(  29)    8  23  |   15  29  |   91.44   12 |   92.07   11 |   88.60   17  CENTRAL
  20  Detroit Pistons         =  88.64   41  45   90.14(  19)    9  22  |   17  32  |   88.94   19 |   88.94   18 |   87.50   23  CENTRAL
  28  Chicago Bulls           =  82.47   22  60   90.05(  22)    3  24  |    7  37  |   82.60   27 |   82.59   27 |   81.96   30  CENTRAL
  30  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  81.81   19  63   90.19(  17)    4  23  |    7  37  |   81.60   29 |   81.79   29 |   82.46   29  CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  SOUTHEAST               =  88.44      88.14  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      88.15  (  5)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
  14  Miami Heat              =  89.81   39  43   89.79(  28)    9  18  |   13  27  |   89.74   14 |   89.50   15 |   90.06   16  SOUTHEAST
  16  Orlando Magic           =  89.63   43  44   90.14(  18)   12  19  |   21  24  |   89.06   18 |   88.97   17 |   91.75   11  SOUTHEAST
  17  Charlotte Hornets       =  89.39   39  43   89.81(  26)    6  21  |   13  31  |   88.93   20 |   88.71   20 |   91.03   15  SOUTHEAST
  25  Washington Wizards      =  86.86   32  50   89.71(  30)    6  19  |   13  30  |   87.49   25 |   87.61   25 |   83.66   28  SOUTHEAST
  26  Atlanta Hawks           =  85.03   29  53   89.98(  24)    7  20  |   12  33  |   83.79   26 |   83.69   26 |   87.90   20  SOUTHEAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  southwest               =  89.98      90.43  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.41  (  3)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   5  Houston Rockets         =  94.62   59  34   90.94(   2)   21  17  |   32  23  |   95.45    4 |   95.53    4 |   92.46    9  southwest
  11  San Antonio Spurs       =  91.75   51  38   90.46(   8)   18  18  |   25  25  |   91.88   11 |   91.99   12 |   91.33   12  southwest
  19  Memphis Grizzlies       =  88.69   33  49   90.45(   9)   11  19  |   18  29  |   87.99   24 |   87.71   24 |   91.12   14  southwest
  21  Dallas Mavericks        =  88.55   33  49   90.47(   7)   12  19  |   16  32  |   88.59   21 |   88.16   22 |   88.43   18  southwest
  22  New Orleans Pelicans    =  88.54   33  49   90.25(  15)    8  21  |   12  34  |   89.22   16 |   88.89   19 |   85.62   25  southwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  northwest               =  93.04      92.75  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      92.77  (  1)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   4  Utah Jazz               =  94.74   51  36   90.33(  14)   12  20  |   20  28  |   95.14    5 |   94.07    6 |   93.54    5  northwest
   6  Denver Nuggets          =  93.65   61  35   90.57(   5)   18  17  |   34  25  |   93.85    7 |   93.98    7 |   93.01    8  northwest
   9  Portland Trail Blazers  =  93.43   61  37   91.01(   1)   21  22  |   32  29  |   93.56    8 |   93.95    8 |   93.01    7  northwest
  10  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  93.12   50  37   90.36(  13)   17  15  |   26  22  |   93.08    9 |   93.04   10 |   93.27    6  northwest
  18  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.80   36  46   90.49(   6)    8  23  |   17  31  |   89.10   17 |   89.12   16 |   87.67   22  northwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  pacific                 =  89.59      89.74  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      89.66  (  4)
NBA 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 23 Thursday - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.63]                                               [  2.63]       [  2.70]       [  2.63]
   1  Golden State Warriors   =  97.84   69  29   90.39(  11)   21  15  |   36  23  |   97.58    2 |   97.45    1 |   99.15    2  pacific
  13  Los Angeles Clippers    =  90.33   50  38   90.81(   3)   13  23  |   21  29  |   90.98   13 |   91.21   13 |   87.96   19  pacific
  15  Los Angeles Lakers      =  89.64   37  45   90.36(  12)    9  21  |   15  29  |   89.22   15 |   89.84   14 |   91.18   13  pacific
  24  Sacramento Kings        =  88.05   39  43   90.40(  10)    6  24  |   15  32  |   88.43   23 |   88.10   23 |   86.54   24  pacific
  27  Phoenix Suns            =  82.83   19  63   90.66(   4)    5  25  |    9  39  |   81.95   28 |   82.13   28 |   84.81   26  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== MILWAUKEE BUCKS 3.49 4.73 3.75 -2.16 toronto raptors 159 61% 217.03 TORONTO RAPTORS 1.77 0.53 1.64 7.42 milwaukee bucks 127 56% 217.03 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Milwaukee Bucks 3.78 165 62% Toronto Raptors 2 @ Toronto Raptors 1.75 126 56% Milwaukee Bucks endfile

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