United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2025-2026 ratings through results of 2026 APRIL 30 THURSDAY - ROUND 1 PLAYOFFS
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08]
1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.86 59 27 3.93( 32) 13 9 | 23 15 | 4.95 1 | 5.04 1 | 4.71 2 | 4.81 3 central
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.83 57 29 4.01( 16) 17 12 | 29 17 | 4.83 2 | 4.85 2 | 4.82 1 | 4.98 2 METROPOLITAN
3 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.60 52 35 4.04( 10) 16 15 | 30 17 | 4.82 3 | 4.68 3 | 4.43 6 | 4.26 11 ATLANTIC
4 Buffalo Sabres = 4.50 53 34 4.03( 14) 13 13 | 24 23 | 4.45 4 | 4.42 5 | 4.70 3 | 5.06 1 ATLANTIC
5 Montreal Canadiens = 4.42 51 36 4.06( 2) 17 15 | 27 21 | 4.36 7 | 4.40 6 | 4.52 4 | 4.79 4 ATLANTIC
6 Minnesota Wild = 4.38 50 38 3.98( 23) 15 13 | 24 19 | 4.34 8 | 4.38 7 | 4.41 7 | 4.55 7 central
7 Dallas Stars = 4.37 52 36 4.00( 19) 14 14 | 25 19 | 4.42 5 | 4.56 4 | 4.19 12 | 4.12 15 central
8 Washington Capitals = 4.31 43 39 4.02( 15) 11 14 | 19 22 | 4.39 6 | 4.24 9 | 4.33 9 | 4.39 10 METROPOLITAN
9 Ottawa Senators = 4.29 44 42 4.06( 4) 11 18 | 20 25 | 4.25 11 | 4.26 8 | 4.36 8 | 4.54 8 ATLANTIC
10 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.25 47 41 4.03( 13) 11 15 | 24 24 | 4.25 10 | 4.09 14 | 4.44 5 | 4.63 5 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08]
11 Boston Bruins = 4.19 47 40 4.07( 1) 16 20 | 23 25 | 4.17 13 | 4.10 13 | 4.29 10 | 4.40 9 ATLANTIC
12 Utah Mammoth = 4.17 45 42 3.98( 26) 11 14 | 18 24 | 4.25 9 | 4.15 11 | 4.10 15 | 4.09 16 central
13 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.15 42 45 3.95( 29) 5 18 | 13 28 | 4.13 14 | 4.18 10 | 4.15 13 | 4.25 13 pacific
14 Edmonton Oilers = 4.07 43 45 3.94( 31) 7 16 | 14 22 | 4.18 12 | 4.12 12 | 3.91 20 | 3.80 21 pacific
15 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.03 43 45 4.05( 5) 13 22 | 20 28 | 4.02 15 | 3.95 17 | 4.11 14 | 4.18 14 METROPOLITAN
16 New Jersey Devils = 3.97 42 40 4.04( 9) 12 17 | 19 23 | 3.92 18 | 4.06 15 | 3.94 18 | 3.86 20 METROPOLITAN
17 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.93 40 42 4.05( 8) 15 14 | 21 25 | 3.78 22 | 3.94 18 | 4.06 16 | 4.25 12 METROPOLITAN
18 Anaheim Ducks = 3.91 47 41 3.95( 30) 7 16 | 22 22 | 3.93 17 | 3.89 20 | 3.91 21 | 3.90 19 pacific
19 St. Louis Blues = 3.91 37 45 3.96( 28) 13 11 | 19 21 | 3.70 25 | 3.75 24 | 4.25 11 | 4.62 6 central
20 New York Rangers = 3.89 34 48 4.05( 6) 14 16 | 20 26 | 3.88 20 | 3.86 22 | 3.94 17 | 3.95 18 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08]
21 Detroit Red Wings = 3.89 41 41 4.04( 11) 14 15 | 17 28 | 4.00 16 | 3.88 21 | 3.77 23 | 3.58 25 ATLANTIC
22 Florida Panthers = 3.87 40 42 4.05( 7) 15 15 | 23 22 | 3.82 21 | 3.97 16 | 3.81 22 | 3.69 22 ATLANTIC
23 New York Islanders = 3.87 43 39 4.04( 12) 11 18 | 21 24 | 3.90 19 | 3.93 19 | 3.76 24 | 3.61 24 METROPOLITAN
24 Nashville Predators = 3.77 38 44 3.99( 22) 7 18 | 13 28 | 3.66 26 | 3.72 25 | 3.92 19 | 4.06 17 central
25 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 35 47 3.99( 20) 8 18 | 12 29 | 3.73 24 | 3.77 23 | 3.60 26 | 3.39 28 central
26 Los Angeles Kings = 3.70 35 51 4.00( 18) 8 19 | 13 30 | 3.77 23 | 3.71 26 | 3.60 27 | 3.44 27 pacific
27 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.56 32 50 4.06( 3) 9 21 | 16 29 | 3.63 27 | 3.68 27 | 3.27 30 | 2.82 31 ATLANTIC
28 Calgary Flames = 3.51 34 48 3.98( 24) 8 15 | 17 23 | 3.42 29 | 3.46 28 | 3.61 25 | 3.63 23 pacific
29 San Jose Sharks = 3.47 39 43 3.97( 27) 9 14 | 16 24 | 3.34 30 | 3.45 29 | 3.57 28 | 3.56 26 pacific
30 Seattle Kraken = 3.43 34 48 3.98( 25) 4 19 | 11 29 | 3.48 28 | 3.43 30 | 3.36 29 | 3.13 29 pacific
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.16 29 53 4.00( 17) 7 17 | 12 28 | 3.16 31 | 3.06 31 | 3.24 31 | 3.01 30 central
32 Vancouver Canucks = 3.02 25 57 3.99( 21) 6 17 | 9 30 | 3.09 32 | 3.01 32 | 2.91 32 | 2.45 32 pacific
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 ATLANTIC = 4.19 4.17 ( 1) 8 4.17 ( 1) 4.1658( 0.3613) 4.1868( 0.3757) 4.1741( 0.3258) 4.1434( 0.4784) 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.08 4.14 ( 2) 8 4.13 ( 2) 4.1368( 0.3255) 4.1195( 0.3501) 4.1153( 0.3211) 4.1757( 0.3386) 3 central = 4.05 4.04 ( 3) 8 4.04 ( 3) 4.0410( 0.5176) 4.0272( 0.5651) 4.0543( 0.6102) 4.0519( 0.4638) 4 pacific = 3.66 3.66 ( 4) 8 3.66 ( 4) 3.6565( 0.3798) 3.6665( 0.3975) 3.6562( 0.3942) 3.6290( 0.3841) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.4351) 4.0000( 0.4571) 4.0000( 0.4571) 4.0000( 0.4571) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.08 4.14 ( 2) 8 4.13 ( 2) 4.1368( 0.3255) 4.1195( 0.3501) 4.1153( 0.3211) 4.1757( 0.3386) 1 ATLANTIC = 4.19 4.17 ( 1) 8 4.17 ( 1) 4.1658( 0.3613) 4.1868( 0.3757) 4.1741( 0.3258) 4.1434( 0.4784) 3 central = 4.05 4.04 ( 3) 8 4.04 ( 3) 4.0410( 0.5176) 4.0272( 0.5651) 4.0543( 0.6102) 4.0519( 0.4638) 4 pacific = 3.66 3.66 ( 4) 8 3.66 ( 4) 3.6565( 0.3798) 3.6665( 0.3975) 3.6562( 0.3942) 3.6290( 0.3841) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.4351) 4.0000( 0.4571) 4.0000( 0.4571) 4.0000( 0.4571) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.08 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08] 2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.83 57 29 4.01( 16) 17 12 | 29 17 | 4.83 2 | 4.85 2 | 4.82 1 | 4.98 2 METROPOLITAN 8 Washington Capitals = 4.31 43 39 4.02( 15) 11 14 | 19 22 | 4.39 6 | 4.24 9 | 4.33 9 | 4.39 10 METROPOLITAN 10 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.25 47 41 4.03( 13) 11 15 | 24 24 | 4.25 10 | 4.09 14 | 4.44 5 | 4.63 5 METROPOLITAN 15 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.03 43 45 4.05( 5) 13 22 | 20 28 | 4.02 15 | 3.95 17 | 4.11 14 | 4.18 14 METROPOLITAN 16 New Jersey Devils = 3.97 42 40 4.04( 9) 12 17 | 19 23 | 3.92 18 | 4.06 15 | 3.94 18 | 3.86 20 METROPOLITAN 17 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.93 40 42 4.05( 8) 15 14 | 21 25 | 3.78 22 | 3.94 18 | 4.06 16 | 4.25 12 METROPOLITAN 20 New York Rangers = 3.89 34 48 4.05( 6) 14 16 | 20 26 | 3.88 20 | 3.86 22 | 3.94 17 | 3.95 18 METROPOLITAN 23 New York Islanders = 3.87 43 39 4.04( 12) 11 18 | 21 24 | 3.90 19 | 3.93 19 | 3.76 24 | 3.61 24 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 4.19 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08] 3 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.60 52 35 4.04( 10) 16 15 | 30 17 | 4.82 3 | 4.68 3 | 4.43 6 | 4.26 11 ATLANTIC 4 Buffalo Sabres = 4.50 53 34 4.03( 14) 13 13 | 24 23 | 4.45 4 | 4.42 5 | 4.70 3 | 5.06 1 ATLANTIC 5 Montreal Canadiens = 4.42 51 36 4.06( 2) 17 15 | 27 21 | 4.36 7 | 4.40 6 | 4.52 4 | 4.79 4 ATLANTIC 9 Ottawa Senators = 4.29 44 42 4.06( 4) 11 18 | 20 25 | 4.25 11 | 4.26 8 | 4.36 8 | 4.54 8 ATLANTIC 11 Boston Bruins = 4.19 47 40 4.07( 1) 16 20 | 23 25 | 4.17 13 | 4.10 13 | 4.29 10 | 4.40 9 ATLANTIC 21 Detroit Red Wings = 3.89 41 41 4.04( 11) 14 15 | 17 28 | 4.00 16 | 3.88 21 | 3.77 23 | 3.58 25 ATLANTIC 22 Florida Panthers = 3.87 40 42 4.05( 7) 15 15 | 23 22 | 3.82 21 | 3.97 16 | 3.81 22 | 3.69 22 ATLANTIC 27 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.56 32 50 4.06( 3) 9 21 | 16 29 | 3.63 27 | 3.68 27 | 3.27 30 | 2.82 31 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 central = 4.05 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08] 1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.86 59 27 3.93( 32) 13 9 | 23 15 | 4.95 1 | 5.04 1 | 4.71 2 | 4.81 3 central 6 Minnesota Wild = 4.38 50 38 3.98( 23) 15 13 | 24 19 | 4.34 8 | 4.38 7 | 4.41 7 | 4.55 7 central 7 Dallas Stars = 4.37 52 36 4.00( 19) 14 14 | 25 19 | 4.42 5 | 4.56 4 | 4.19 12 | 4.12 15 central 12 Utah Mammoth = 4.17 45 42 3.98( 26) 11 14 | 18 24 | 4.25 9 | 4.15 11 | 4.10 15 | 4.09 16 central 19 St. Louis Blues = 3.91 37 45 3.96( 28) 13 11 | 19 21 | 3.70 25 | 3.75 24 | 4.25 11 | 4.62 6 central 24 Nashville Predators = 3.77 38 44 3.99( 22) 7 18 | 13 28 | 3.66 26 | 3.72 25 | 3.92 19 | 4.06 17 central 25 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 35 47 3.99( 20) 8 18 | 12 29 | 3.73 24 | 3.77 23 | 3.60 26 | 3.39 28 central 31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.16 29 53 4.00( 17) 7 17 | 12 28 | 3.16 31 | 3.06 31 | 3.24 31 | 3.01 30 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.66 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.13] [ 0.16] [ 0.16] [ 0.08] [ 0.08] 13 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.15 42 45 3.95( 29) 5 18 | 13 28 | 4.13 14 | 4.18 10 | 4.15 13 | 4.25 13 pacific 14 Edmonton Oilers = 4.07 43 45 3.94( 31) 7 16 | 14 22 | 4.18 12 | 4.12 12 | 3.91 20 | 3.80 21 pacific 18 Anaheim Ducks = 3.91 47 41 3.95( 30) 7 16 | 22 22 | 3.93 17 | 3.89 20 | 3.91 21 | 3.90 19 pacific 26 Los Angeles Kings = 3.70 35 51 4.00( 18) 8 19 | 13 30 | 3.77 23 | 3.71 26 | 3.60 27 | 3.44 27 pacific 28 Calgary Flames = 3.51 34 48 3.98( 24) 8 15 | 17 23 | 3.42 29 | 3.46 28 | 3.61 25 | 3.63 23 pacific 29 San Jose Sharks = 3.47 39 43 3.97( 27) 9 14 | 16 24 | 3.34 30 | 3.45 29 | 3.57 28 | 3.56 26 pacific 30 Seattle Kraken = 3.43 34 48 3.98( 25) 4 19 | 11 29 | 3.48 28 | 3.43 30 | 3.36 29 | 3.13 29 pacific 32 Vancouver Canucks = 3.02 25 57 3.99( 21) 6 17 | 9 30 | 3.09 32 | 3.01 32 | 2.91 32 | 2.45 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.08 0.08 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 Buffalo Sabres 0.18 0.11 0.16 0.32 0.58 @ Boston Bruins 114 53% 2.98 3.17 6.16 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.05 0.31 0.12 -0.18 -0.62 @ Montreal Canadiens 103 51% 3.02 3.19 6.21 3 @ Utah Mammoth 0.14 0.28 0.13 0.03 -0.07 Vegas Golden Knights 111 53% 3.21 2.97 6.18 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2026 April 30 Thursday - Round 1 Playoffs HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.08 0.08 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 Buffalo Sabres 0.49 0.42 0.46 0.63 0.88 @ Boston Bruins 140 58% 2.98 3.17 6.16 2 @ Montreal Canadiens 0.49 0.23 0.41 0.71 1.15 Tampa Bay Lightning 140 58% 3.02 3.19 6.21 3 @ Utah Mammoth 0.08 0.21 0.06 -0.03 -0.14 Vegas Golden Knights 106 51% 3.21 2.97 6.18EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Buffalo Sabres 0.27 121 55% @ Boston Bruins 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 0.11 108 52% @ Montreal Canadiens 3 @ Utah Mammoth 0.29 123 55% Vegas Golden Knights endfileTop_of_Page