United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2026-2027 ratings through results of 2026 SEPTEMBER 29 TUESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
1 Florida Panthers = 4.46 1 0 4.62( 1) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.46 1 | 4.47 1 | 4.47 3 | 4.41 4 ATLANTIC
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.43 0 1 4.27( 4) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.43 2 | 4.43 2 | 3.94 21 | 3.73 28 METROPOLITAN
3 Colorado Avalanche = 4.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.40 3 | 4.40 3 | 4.18 6 | 4.06 6 central
4 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.31 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.31 4 | 4.31 4 | 4.14 7 | 4.05 7 ATLANTIC
5 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.30 1 0 3.36( 9) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.30 5 | 4.30 5 | 4.60 1 | 4.57 2 pacific
6 Edmonton Oilers = 4.27 0 1 3.25( 10) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.27 6 | 4.27 6 | 3.66 30 | 3.52 30 pacific
7 Washington Capitals = 4.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.27 7 | 4.26 7 | 4.12 8 | 4.04 8 METROPOLITAN
8 Minnesota Wild = 4.23 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.23 8 | 4.23 8 | 4.10 9 | 4.04 9 central
9 Dallas Stars = 4.21 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.21 9 | 4.20 10 | 4.09 10 | 4.03 10 central
10 Montreal Canadiens = 4.20 1 0 4.27( 5) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.20 10 | 4.21 9 | 4.33 4 | 4.34 5 ATLANTIC
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
11 Buffalo Sabres = 4.10 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.10 11 | 4.10 11 | 4.05 11 | 4.02 11 ATLANTIC
12 New Jersey Devils = 4.09 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.09 12 | 4.09 12 | 4.04 12 | 4.01 12 METROPOLITAN
13 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 0 1 4.01( 7) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.08 13 | 4.08 13 | 3.80 28 | 3.70 29 ATLANTIC
14 Utah Mammoth = 4.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 14 | 4.06 14 | 4.03 13 | 4.01 13 central
15 Ottawa Senators = 4.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 15 | 4.05 15 | 4.03 14 | 4.01 14 ATLANTIC
16 Los Angeles Kings = 4.04 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.04 16 | 4.04 16 | 4.02 15 | 4.01 15 pacific
17 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.01 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.01 17 | 4.01 17 | 4.00 16 | 4.00 16 METROPOLITAN
18 Anaheim Ducks = 4.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 17 | 4.00 17 pacific
19 San Jose Sharks = 4.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.00 19 | 4.00 19 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 18 pacific
20 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.96 20 | 3.96 20 | 3.98 19 | 3.99 19 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
21 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.90 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.90 21 | 3.90 21 | 3.96 20 | 3.99 20 METROPOLITAN
22 Boston Bruins = 3.90 1 0 3.62( 8) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.90 22 | 3.89 22 | 4.57 2 | 4.62 1 ATLANTIC
23 New York Islanders = 3.86 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.86 23 | 3.86 23 | 3.94 22 | 3.98 21 METROPOLITAN
24 New York Rangers = 3.81 0 1 4.08( 6) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.81 24 | 3.80 25 | 3.29 32 | 3.33 32 METROPOLITAN
25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.80 25 | 3.80 24 | 3.91 23 | 3.97 22 ATLANTIC
26 St. Louis Blues = 3.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.74 26 | 3.74 26 | 3.88 24 | 3.96 23 central
27 Nashville Predators = 3.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.74 27 | 3.74 27 | 3.88 25 | 3.96 24 central
28 Winnipeg Jets = 3.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.72 28 | 3.72 28 | 3.87 26 | 3.96 25 central
29 Seattle Kraken = 3.61 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.61 29 | 3.61 29 | 3.82 27 | 3.94 26 pacific
30 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.54 0 1 4.48( 2) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.54 30 | 3.54 30 | 3.33 31 | 3.40 31 central
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
31 Calgary Flames = 3.47 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.47 31 | 3.47 31 | 3.76 29 | 3.92 27 pacific
32 Vancouver Canucks = 3.43 1 0 4.46( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 3.43 32 | 3.43 32 | 4.20 5 | 4.43 3 pacific
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 4.11 ( 1) 8 4.11 ( 1) 4.1139( 0.2117) 4.1139( 0.2117) 4.1149( 0.2146) 4.1617( 0.2726) 4.1396( 0.2954) 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.02 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 4.0407( 0.2148) 4.0407( 0.2148) 4.0400( 0.2140) 3.9088( 0.2556) 3.8843( 0.2442) 3 central = 3.94 3.96 ( 3) 8 3.96 ( 3) 3.9552( 0.3079) 3.9552( 0.3079) 3.9548( 0.3071) 3.9213( 0.2675) 3.9271( 0.2160) 4 pacific = 3.91 3.89 ( 4) 8 3.89 ( 4) 3.8902( 0.3446) 3.8902( 0.3446) 3.8904( 0.3439) 4.0082( 0.2935) 4.0490( 0.3247) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2787) 4.0000( 0.2793) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.02 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 4.0407( 0.2148) 4.0407( 0.2148) 4.0400( 0.2140) 3.9088( 0.2556) 3.8843( 0.2442) 1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 4.11 ( 1) 8 4.11 ( 1) 4.1139( 0.2117) 4.1139( 0.2117) 4.1149( 0.2146) 4.1617( 0.2726) 4.1396( 0.2954) 3 central = 3.94 3.96 ( 3) 8 3.96 ( 3) 3.9552( 0.3079) 3.9552( 0.3079) 3.9548( 0.3071) 3.9213( 0.2675) 3.9271( 0.2160) 4 pacific = 3.91 3.89 ( 4) 8 3.89 ( 4) 3.8902( 0.3446) 3.8902( 0.3446) 3.8904( 0.3439) 4.0082( 0.2935) 4.0490( 0.3247) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2760) 4.0000( 0.2787) 4.0000( 0.2793) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.02 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.43 0 1 4.27( 4) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.43 2 | 4.43 2 | 3.94 21 | 3.73 28 METROPOLITAN 7 Washington Capitals = 4.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.27 7 | 4.26 7 | 4.12 8 | 4.04 8 METROPOLITAN 12 New Jersey Devils = 4.09 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.09 12 | 4.09 12 | 4.04 12 | 4.01 12 METROPOLITAN 17 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.01 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.01 17 | 4.01 17 | 4.00 16 | 4.00 16 METROPOLITAN 20 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.96 20 | 3.96 20 | 3.98 19 | 3.99 19 METROPOLITAN 21 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.90 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.90 21 | 3.90 21 | 3.96 20 | 3.99 20 METROPOLITAN 23 New York Islanders = 3.86 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.86 23 | 3.86 23 | 3.94 22 | 3.98 21 METROPOLITAN 24 New York Rangers = 3.81 0 1 4.08( 6) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.81 24 | 3.80 25 | 3.29 32 | 3.33 32 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 4.11 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 1 Florida Panthers = 4.46 1 0 4.62( 1) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.46 1 | 4.47 1 | 4.47 3 | 4.41 4 ATLANTIC 4 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.31 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.31 4 | 4.31 4 | 4.14 7 | 4.05 7 ATLANTIC 10 Montreal Canadiens = 4.20 1 0 4.27( 5) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.20 10 | 4.21 9 | 4.33 4 | 4.34 5 ATLANTIC 11 Buffalo Sabres = 4.10 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.10 11 | 4.10 11 | 4.05 11 | 4.02 11 ATLANTIC 13 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 0 1 4.01( 7) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.08 13 | 4.08 13 | 3.80 28 | 3.70 29 ATLANTIC 15 Ottawa Senators = 4.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 15 | 4.05 15 | 4.03 14 | 4.01 14 ATLANTIC 22 Boston Bruins = 3.90 1 0 3.62( 8) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.90 22 | 3.89 22 | 4.57 2 | 4.62 1 ATLANTIC 25 Detroit Red Wings = 3.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.80 25 | 3.80 24 | 3.91 23 | 3.97 22 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 central = 3.94 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 3 Colorado Avalanche = 4.40 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.40 3 | 4.40 3 | 4.18 6 | 4.06 6 central 8 Minnesota Wild = 4.23 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.23 8 | 4.23 8 | 4.10 9 | 4.04 9 central 9 Dallas Stars = 4.21 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.21 9 | 4.20 10 | 4.09 10 | 4.03 10 central 14 Utah Mammoth = 4.06 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 14 | 4.06 14 | 4.03 13 | 4.01 13 central 26 St. Louis Blues = 3.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.74 26 | 3.74 26 | 3.88 24 | 3.96 23 central 27 Nashville Predators = 3.74 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.74 27 | 3.74 27 | 3.88 25 | 3.96 24 central 28 Winnipeg Jets = 3.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.72 28 | 3.72 28 | 3.87 26 | 3.96 25 central 30 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.54 0 1 4.48( 2) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.54 30 | 3.54 30 | 3.33 31 | 3.40 31 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.91 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 5 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.30 1 0 3.36( 9) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.30 5 | 4.30 5 | 4.60 1 | 4.57 2 pacific 6 Edmonton Oilers = 4.27 0 1 3.25( 10) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.27 6 | 4.27 6 | 3.66 30 | 3.52 30 pacific 16 Los Angeles Kings = 4.04 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.04 16 | 4.04 16 | 4.02 15 | 4.01 15 pacific 18 Anaheim Ducks = 4.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 17 | 4.00 17 pacific 19 San Jose Sharks = 4.00 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.00 19 | 4.00 19 | 4.00 18 | 4.00 18 pacific 29 Seattle Kraken = 3.61 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.61 29 | 3.61 29 | 3.82 27 | 3.94 26 pacific 31 Calgary Flames = 3.47 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.47 31 | 3.47 31 | 3.76 29 | 3.92 27 pacific 32 Vancouver Canucks = 3.43 1 0 4.46( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 3.43 32 | 3.43 32 | 4.20 5 | 4.43 3 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.23 0.20 Pittsburgh Penguins 123 55% 2.57 2.28 4.85 0.29 55% 123 2 @ Toronto Maple Leafs 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.05 -0.09 New York Islanders 133 57% 2.63 2.22 4.84 0.41 57% 133 3 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.35 0.24 Los Angeles Kings 146 59% 2.70 2.16 4.85 0.54 59% 146 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 September 29 Tuesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.23 0.20 Pittsburgh Penguins 123 55% 2.57 2.28 4.85 0.29 55% 123 2 New York Islanders 0.94 0.94 0.95 1.31 1.45 @ Toronto Maple Leafs 191 66% 2.89 1.95 4.84 0.94 66% 191 3 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.35 0.24 Los Angeles Kings 146 59% 2.70 2.16 4.85 0.54 59% 146EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Philadelphia Flyers 0.19 114 53% Pittsburgh Penguins 2 New York Islanders 0.44 136 58% @ Toronto Maple Leafs 3 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.19 114 53% Los Angeles Kings endfileTop_of_Page