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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NHL 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 MARCH 17 SUNDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
NEXTRA= 105 KEY= 5559 BOWVAL= 0 NMINUS= 0 METHOD=BLUE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
   1  Florida Panthers        =   4.71   45  23    3.98(  23)   10   9  |   17  14  |    4.70    1 |    4.78    1 |    4.58    4  ATLANTIC
   2  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.65   42  26    4.00(  19)    8  11  |   15  17  |    4.64    2 |    4.62    5 |    4.69    1  METROPOLITAN
   3  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.63   43  25    3.95(  31)   10   8  |   19  13  |    4.62    3 |    4.59    6 |    4.67    2  central
   4  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.60   40  25    3.98(  27)    6  11  |   14  19  |    4.61    4 |    4.54    7 |    4.62    3  pacific
   5  New York Rangers        =   4.59   45  23    3.98(  26)   10   8  |   17  14  |    4.55    6 |    4.63    3 |    4.57    5  METROPOLITAN
   6  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.53   43  24    3.92(  32)    9   9  |   16  16  |    4.54    7 |    4.63    2 |    4.35    9  central
   7  Vancouver Canucks       =   4.52   42  26    3.98(  24)   12   8  |   20  14  |    4.58    5 |    4.62    4 |    4.24   12  pacific
   8  Dallas Stars            =   4.51   41  28    4.00(  17)    8  12  |   18  20  |    4.53    8 |    4.51    8 |    4.44    8  central
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.47   40  29    3.96(  30)   12   7  |   16  15  |    4.49    9 |    4.44    9 |    4.46    7  ATLANTIC
  10  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.45   38  28    3.99(  22)    9  11  |   18  14  |    4.46   10 |    4.38   10 |    4.49    6  ATLANTIC
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
  11  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.31   34  33    4.02(  11)    9  14  |   13  20  |    4.36   11 |    4.25   12 |    4.27   10  pacific
  12  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.21   36  31    3.97(  29)   12   9  |   16  16  |    4.22   12 |    4.17   14 |    4.23   13  pacific
  13  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.20   36  31    4.04(   6)   11  13  |   16  16  |    4.18   13 |    4.20   13 |    4.25   11  ATLANTIC
  14  Nashville Predators     =   4.18   39  29    4.01(  16)   10  13  |   17  20  |    4.15   14 |    4.28   11 |    4.10   14  central
  15  Calgary Flames          =   4.04   33  34    4.07(   2)   10  13  |   19  18  |    4.02   15 |    4.04   15 |    4.10   15  pacific
  16  Minnesota Wild          =   4.00   33  35    4.05(   5)   10  14  |   15  20  |    3.97   19 |    4.00   17 |    4.08   17  central
  17  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.99   34  34    4.01(  12)    6  17  |   15  19  |    4.01   16 |    4.03   16 |    3.89   22  ATLANTIC
  18  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.96   32  36    3.98(  25)    7  14  |   15  18  |    3.97   18 |    3.91   20 |    4.01   18  ATLANTIC
  19  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   3.94   30  37    3.97(  28)    6  14  |   11  20  |    3.97   17 |    3.85   21 |    4.01   19  METROPOLITAN
  20  St. Louis Blues         =   3.90   36  32    4.04(   7)   10  13  |   18  19  |    3.85   23 |    4.00   18 |    3.86   23  central
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
  21  New Jersey Devils       =   3.90   32  36    3.99(  21)    5  16  |   10  23  |    3.87   21 |    3.82   22 |    4.09   16  METROPOLITAN
  22  Seattle Kraken          =   3.88   28  38    4.06(   4)    8  15  |   14  25  |    3.91   20 |    3.79   23 |    3.93   20  pacific
  23  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.87   34  34    4.03(   8)   10  11  |   16  18  |    3.86   22 |    3.98   19 |    3.71   26  METROPOLITAN
  24  New York Islanders      =   3.79   29  38    4.03(   9)   10  12  |   13  20  |    3.79   24 |    3.71   25 |    3.89   21  METROPOLITAN
  25  Ottawa Senators         =   3.74   28  38    4.01(  14)    5  15  |   11  21  |    3.74   25 |    3.70   26 |    3.81   24  ATLANTIC
  26  Washington Capitals     =   3.67   32  34    4.00(  20)    5  15  |   11  20  |    3.60   27 |    3.74   24 |    3.75   25  METROPOLITAN
  27  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.60   28  40    4.01(  13)    3  17  |    8  28  |    3.64   26 |    3.62   27 |    3.48   27  central
  28  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.32   23  45    4.00(  18)    7  15  |   12  20  |    3.35   28 |    3.29   29 |    3.33   29  METROPOLITAN
  29  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.30   25  42    4.01(  15)    6  14  |    7  26  |    3.30   29 |    3.31   28 |    3.34   28  ATLANTIC
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.03   23  45    4.03(  10)    4  20  |    9  27  |    3.00   30 |    3.10   30 |    3.02   30  pacific
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
  31  Chicago Blackhawks      =   2.90   19  49    4.07(   1)    5  21  |    8  30  |    2.90   31 |    2.89   31 |    3.00   31  central
  32  San Jose Sharks         =   2.60   16  51    4.07(   3)    4  20  |    6  30  |    2.59   32 |    2.58   32 |    2.76   32  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.12       4.10  (  1)      8       4.11  (  1)
   2  central                 =   4.09       4.03  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  pacific                 =   3.99       3.90  (  4)      8       3.91  (  4)
   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.94       3.97  (  3)      8       3.96  (  3)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.94       3.97  (  3)      8       3.96  (  3)
   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.12       4.10  (  1)      8       4.11  (  1)
   2  central                 =   4.09       4.03  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  pacific                 =   3.99       3.90  (  4)      8       3.91  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  METROPOLITAN            =   3.94       3.97  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.96  (  3)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
   2  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.65   42  26    4.00(  19)    8  11  |   15  17  |    4.64    2 |    4.62    5 |    4.69    1  METROPOLITAN
   5  New York Rangers        =   4.59   45  23    3.98(  26)   10   8  |   17  14  |    4.55    6 |    4.63    3 |    4.57    5  METROPOLITAN
  19  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   3.94   30  37    3.97(  28)    6  14  |   11  20  |    3.97   17 |    3.85   21 |    4.01   19  METROPOLITAN
  21  New Jersey Devils       =   3.90   32  36    3.99(  21)    5  16  |   10  23  |    3.87   21 |    3.82   22 |    4.09   16  METROPOLITAN
  23  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.87   34  34    4.03(   8)   10  11  |   16  18  |    3.86   22 |    3.98   19 |    3.71   26  METROPOLITAN
  24  New York Islanders      =   3.79   29  38    4.03(   9)   10  12  |   13  20  |    3.79   24 |    3.71   25 |    3.89   21  METROPOLITAN
  26  Washington Capitals     =   3.67   32  34    4.00(  20)    5  15  |   11  20  |    3.60   27 |    3.74   24 |    3.75   25  METROPOLITAN
  28  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.32   23  45    4.00(  18)    7  15  |   12  20  |    3.35   28 |    3.29   29 |    3.33   29  METROPOLITAN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.12       4.10  (  1)   TEAMS=  8       4.11  (  1)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
   1  Florida Panthers        =   4.71   45  23    3.98(  23)   10   9  |   17  14  |    4.70    1 |    4.78    1 |    4.58    4  ATLANTIC
   9  Boston Bruins           =   4.47   40  29    3.96(  30)   12   7  |   16  15  |    4.49    9 |    4.44    9 |    4.46    7  ATLANTIC
  10  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.45   38  28    3.99(  22)    9  11  |   18  14  |    4.46   10 |    4.38   10 |    4.49    6  ATLANTIC
  13  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.20   36  31    4.04(   6)   11  13  |   16  16  |    4.18   13 |    4.20   13 |    4.25   11  ATLANTIC
  17  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.99   34  34    4.01(  12)    6  17  |   15  19  |    4.01   16 |    4.03   16 |    3.89   22  ATLANTIC
  18  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.96   32  36    3.98(  25)    7  14  |   15  18  |    3.97   18 |    3.91   20 |    4.01   18  ATLANTIC
  25  Ottawa Senators         =   3.74   28  38    4.01(  14)    5  15  |   11  21  |    3.74   25 |    3.70   26 |    3.81   24  ATLANTIC
  29  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.30   25  42    4.01(  15)    6  14  |    7  26  |    3.30   29 |    3.31   28 |    3.34   28  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  central                 =   4.09       4.03  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  2)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
   3  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.63   43  25    3.95(  31)   10   8  |   19  13  |    4.62    3 |    4.59    6 |    4.67    2  central
   6  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.53   43  24    3.92(  32)    9   9  |   16  16  |    4.54    7 |    4.63    2 |    4.35    9  central
   8  Dallas Stars            =   4.51   41  28    4.00(  17)    8  12  |   18  20  |    4.53    8 |    4.51    8 |    4.44    8  central
  14  Nashville Predators     =   4.18   39  29    4.01(  16)   10  13  |   17  20  |    4.15   14 |    4.28   11 |    4.10   14  central
  16  Minnesota Wild          =   4.00   33  35    4.05(   5)   10  14  |   15  20  |    3.97   19 |    4.00   17 |    4.08   17  central
  20  St. Louis Blues         =   3.90   36  32    4.04(   7)   10  13  |   18  19  |    3.85   23 |    4.00   18 |    3.86   23  central
  27  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.60   28  40    4.01(  13)    3  17  |    8  28  |    3.64   26 |    3.62   27 |    3.48   27  central
  31  Chicago Blackhawks      =   2.90   19  49    4.07(   1)    5  21  |    8  30  |    2.90   31 |    2.89   31 |    3.00   31  central
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  pacific                 =   3.99       3.90  (  4)   TEAMS=  8       3.91  (  4)
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 March 17 Sunday                                                                                     
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.21]       [  0.21]       [  0.22]
   4  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.60   40  25    3.98(  27)    6  11  |   14  19  |    4.61    4 |    4.54    7 |    4.62    3  pacific
   7  Vancouver Canucks       =   4.52   42  26    3.98(  24)   12   8  |   20  14  |    4.58    5 |    4.62    4 |    4.24   12  pacific
  11  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.31   34  33    4.02(  11)    9  14  |   13  20  |    4.36   11 |    4.25   12 |    4.27   10  pacific
  12  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.21   36  31    3.97(  29)   12   9  |   16  16  |    4.22   12 |    4.17   14 |    4.23   13  pacific
  15  Calgary Flames          =   4.04   33  34    4.07(   2)   10  13  |   19  18  |    4.02   15 |    4.04   15 |    4.10   15  pacific
  22  Seattle Kraken          =   3.88   28  38    4.06(   4)    8  15  |   14  25  |    3.91   20 |    3.79   23 |    3.93   20  pacific
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.03   23  45    4.03(  10)    4  20  |    9  27  |    3.00   30 |    3.10   30 |    3.02   30  pacific
  32  San Jose Sharks         =   2.60   16  51    4.07(   3)    4  20  |    6  30  |    2.59   32 |    2.58   32 |    2.76   32  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== CALGARY FLAMES 0.58 0.63 0.51 0.56 washington capitals 149 60% 5.99 SEATTLE KRAKEN 0.13 0.15 0.09 0.14 buffalo sabres 109 52% 5.78 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Calgary Flames 0.73 164 62% Washington Capitals 2 Buffalo Sabres 0.07 105 51% @ Seattle Kraken endfile

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