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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


[ My Computer Room ]

[ Jeff's Sports Ratings - the only place to find my updated ratings]

my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

Email: Jeff Sagarin

All Contents Copyright © 2024 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NHL 2023-2024 ratings through results of 2024 MAY 18 SATURDAY - ROUND 2 PLAYOFFS


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file where you'll also see the additional set of predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   1  New York Rangers        =   4.96   63  29    4.00(  30)   17  11  |   26  17  |    5.01    1 |    4.95    1 |    4.71    2 |    4.65    6  METROPOLITAN
   2  Florida Panthers        =   4.89   60  33    4.05(  13)   15  15  |   31  20  |    4.86    3 |    4.94    2 |    4.71    3 |    4.84    2  ATLANTIC
   3  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.83   56  37    4.05(  11)   17  17  |   24  25  |    4.92    2 |    4.71    5 |    4.69    5 |    4.67    5  central
   4  Dallas Stars            =   4.82   60  35    4.05(  12)   15  15  |   29  24  |    4.80    5 |    4.86    3 |    4.66    6 |    4.72    4  central
   5  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.80   58  35    4.02(  22)   12  16  |   22  22  |    4.75    6 |    4.81    4 |    4.79    1 |    4.96    1  METROPOLITAN
   6  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.79   56  37    4.01(  29)   11  18  |   26  24  |    4.85    4 |    4.69    6 |    4.69    4 |    4.73    3  pacific
   7  Boston Bruins           =   4.65   53  42    4.10(   1)   21  16  |   30  24  |    4.74    7 |    4.56    9 |    4.46    7 |    4.33    9  ATLANTIC
   8  Vancouver Canucks       =   4.55   57  37    4.04(  14)   16  13  |   29  23  |    4.59    8 |    4.67    7 |    4.26   12 |    4.13   15  pacific
   9  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.55   53  34    4.01(  27)   14  14  |   23  21  |    4.57    9 |    4.65    8 |    4.29    9 |    4.22   13  central
  10  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.45   49  40    4.07(   5)   14  17  |   22  25  |    4.46   10 |    4.40   10 |    4.44    8 |    4.43    7  ATLANTIC
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
  11  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.27   48  41    4.02(  21)   18  15  |   23  22  |    4.25   11 |    4.26   13 |    4.27   11 |    4.24   11  pacific
  12  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.26   46  41    4.07(   8)   15  17  |   20  24  |    4.23   13 |    4.27   12 |    4.28   10 |    4.38    8  ATLANTIC
  13  Nashville Predators     =   4.25   49  39    4.02(  20)   13  20  |   20  25  |    4.25   12 |    4.32   11 |    4.13   14 |    4.20   14  central
  14  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.24   45  42    4.02(  23)   12  20  |   16  28  |    4.20   14 |    4.26   14 |    4.24   13 |    4.22   12  pacific
  15  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.03   41  41    4.02(  19)    7  20  |   15  24  |    4.06   15 |    4.06   15 |    3.93   19 |    3.85   24  ATLANTIC
  16  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   3.98   38  44    4.01(  28)    8  18  |   15  23  |    3.97   17 |    3.93   18 |    4.07   16 |    4.10   16  METROPOLITAN
  17  St. Louis Blues         =   3.96   43  39    4.00(  31)   11  16  |   16  26  |    3.99   16 |    3.98   16 |    3.89   22 |    3.87   22  central
  18  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.94   39  43    4.02(  24)    7  19  |   17  26  |    3.87   18 |    3.94   17 |    4.08   15 |    4.27   10  ATLANTIC
  19  Minnesota Wild          =   3.91   39  43    4.02(  26)   10  17  |   16  27  |    3.87   19 |    3.91   19 |    4.00   18 |    4.01   17  central
  20  New Jersey Devils       =   3.83   38  44    4.02(  25)    8  18  |   14  27  |    3.80   20 |    3.78   22 |    4.01   17 |    3.92   19  METROPOLITAN
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
  21  New York Islanders      =   3.80   40  47    4.09(   3)   14  18  |   20  28  |    3.78   21 |    3.78   21 |    3.93   20 |    4.00   18  METROPOLITAN
  22  Calgary Flames          =   3.75   38  44    4.03(  18)   10  17  |   20  24  |    3.68   23 |    3.78   20 |    3.89   21 |    3.89   21  pacific
  23  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.70   38  44    4.04(  15)   13  14  |   19  24  |    3.73   22 |    3.76   23 |    3.58   27 |    3.44   27  METROPOLITAN
  24  Washington Capitals     =   3.67   40  46    4.09(   2)    8  23  |   17  30  |    3.66   24 |    3.70   25 |    3.69   25 |    3.68   26  METROPOLITAN
  25  Ottawa Senators         =   3.66   37  45    4.06(   9)    8  19  |   19  25  |    3.55   26 |    3.73   24 |    3.83   23 |    3.91   20  ATLANTIC
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.61   36  46    4.03(  16)    6  21  |   15  28  |    3.60   25 |    3.67   26 |    3.61   26 |    3.69   25  central
  27  Seattle Kraken          =   3.58   34  48    3.99(  32)    8  18  |   14  28  |    3.54   27 |    3.54   27 |    3.80   24 |    3.86   23  pacific
  28  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.37   30  52    4.07(   7)    8  19  |   10  34  |    3.45   28 |    3.28   28 |    3.39   28 |    3.36   28  ATLANTIC
  29  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.12   27  55    4.07(   6)    9  18  |   12  31  |    3.13   29 |    3.12   29 |    3.26   29 |    3.24   29  METROPOLITAN
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   2.91   27  55    4.03(  17)    4  22  |   12  31  |    2.97   30 |    2.91   30 |    2.97   30 |    2.81   31  pacific
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
  31  Chicago Blackhawks      =   2.64   23  59    4.08(   4)    6  22  |    9  35  |    2.65   31 |    2.61   31 |    2.90   31 |    2.87   30  central
  32  San Jose Sharks         =   2.21   19  63    4.05(  10)    4  22  |    6  37  |    2.21   32 |    2.17   32 |    2.57   32 |    2.51   32  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.16       4.16  (  1)      8       4.16  (  1)
   2  central                 =   4.13       4.07  (  2)      8       4.07  (  2)
   3  METROPOLITAN            =   3.93       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   4  pacific                 =   3.87       3.79  (  4)      8       3.79  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  METROPOLITAN            =   3.93       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.16       4.16  (  1)      8       4.16  (  1)
   2  central                 =   4.13       4.07  (  2)      8       4.07  (  2)
   4  pacific                 =   3.87       3.79  (  4)      8       3.79  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  METROPOLITAN            =   3.93
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   1  New York Rangers        =   4.96   63  29    4.00(  30)   17  11  |   26  17  |    5.01    1 |    4.95    1 |    4.71    2 |    4.65    6  METROPOLITAN
   5  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.80   58  35    4.02(  22)   12  16  |   22  22  |    4.75    6 |    4.81    4 |    4.79    1 |    4.96    1  METROPOLITAN
  16  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   3.98   38  44    4.01(  28)    8  18  |   15  23  |    3.97   17 |    3.93   18 |    4.07   16 |    4.10   16  METROPOLITAN
  20  New Jersey Devils       =   3.83   38  44    4.02(  25)    8  18  |   14  27  |    3.80   20 |    3.78   22 |    4.01   17 |    3.92   19  METROPOLITAN
  21  New York Islanders      =   3.80   40  47    4.09(   3)   14  18  |   20  28  |    3.78   21 |    3.78   21 |    3.93   20 |    4.00   18  METROPOLITAN
  23  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.70   38  44    4.04(  15)   13  14  |   19  24  |    3.73   22 |    3.76   23 |    3.58   27 |    3.44   27  METROPOLITAN
  24  Washington Capitals     =   3.67   40  46    4.09(   2)    8  23  |   17  30  |    3.66   24 |    3.70   25 |    3.69   25 |    3.68   26  METROPOLITAN
  29  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.12   27  55    4.07(   6)    9  18  |   12  31  |    3.13   29 |    3.12   29 |    3.26   29 |    3.24   29  METROPOLITAN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.16
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   2  Florida Panthers        =   4.89   60  33    4.05(  13)   15  15  |   31  20  |    4.86    3 |    4.94    2 |    4.71    3 |    4.84    2  ATLANTIC
   7  Boston Bruins           =   4.65   53  42    4.10(   1)   21  16  |   30  24  |    4.74    7 |    4.56    9 |    4.46    7 |    4.33    9  ATLANTIC
  10  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.45   49  40    4.07(   5)   14  17  |   22  25  |    4.46   10 |    4.40   10 |    4.44    8 |    4.43    7  ATLANTIC
  12  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.26   46  41    4.07(   8)   15  17  |   20  24  |    4.23   13 |    4.27   12 |    4.28   10 |    4.38    8  ATLANTIC
  15  Detroit Red Wings       =   4.03   41  41    4.02(  19)    7  20  |   15  24  |    4.06   15 |    4.06   15 |    3.93   19 |    3.85   24  ATLANTIC
  18  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.94   39  43    4.02(  24)    7  19  |   17  26  |    3.87   18 |    3.94   17 |    4.08   15 |    4.27   10  ATLANTIC
  25  Ottawa Senators         =   3.66   37  45    4.06(   9)    8  19  |   19  25  |    3.55   26 |    3.73   24 |    3.83   23 |    3.91   20  ATLANTIC
  28  Montreal Canadiens      =   3.37   30  52    4.07(   7)    8  19  |   10  34  |    3.45   28 |    3.28   28 |    3.39   28 |    3.36   28  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  central                 =   4.13
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   3  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.83   56  37    4.05(  11)   17  17  |   24  25  |    4.92    2 |    4.71    5 |    4.69    5 |    4.67    5  central
   4  Dallas Stars            =   4.82   60  35    4.05(  12)   15  15  |   29  24  |    4.80    5 |    4.86    3 |    4.66    6 |    4.72    4  central
   9  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.55   53  34    4.01(  27)   14  14  |   23  21  |    4.57    9 |    4.65    8 |    4.29    9 |    4.22   13  central
  13  Nashville Predators     =   4.25   49  39    4.02(  20)   13  20  |   20  25  |    4.25   12 |    4.32   11 |    4.13   14 |    4.20   14  central
  17  St. Louis Blues         =   3.96   43  39    4.00(  31)   11  16  |   16  26  |    3.99   16 |    3.98   16 |    3.89   22 |    3.87   22  central
  19  Minnesota Wild          =   3.91   39  43    4.02(  26)   10  17  |   16  27  |    3.87   19 |    3.91   19 |    4.00   18 |    4.01   17  central
  26  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.61   36  46    4.03(  16)    6  21  |   15  28  |    3.60   25 |    3.67   26 |    3.61   26 |    3.69   25  central
  31  Chicago Blackhawks      =   2.64   23  59    4.08(   4)    6  22  |    9  35  |    2.65   31 |    2.61   31 |    2.90   31 |    2.87   30  central
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  pacific                 =   3.87
NHL 2023-2024 ratings through games of 2024 May 18 Saturday - Round 2 Playoffs
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.21]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.21]       [  0.24]       [  0.24]
   6  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.79   56  37    4.01(  29)   11  18  |   26  24  |    4.85    4 |    4.69    6 |    4.69    4 |    4.73    3  pacific
   8  Vancouver Canucks       =   4.55   57  37    4.04(  14)   16  13  |   29  23  |    4.59    8 |    4.67    7 |    4.26   12 |    4.13   15  pacific
  11  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.27   48  41    4.02(  21)   18  15  |   23  22  |    4.25   11 |    4.26   13 |    4.27   11 |    4.24   11  pacific
  14  Los Angeles Kings       =   4.24   45  42    4.02(  23)   12  20  |   16  28  |    4.20   14 |    4.26   14 |    4.24   13 |    4.22   12  pacific
  22  Calgary Flames          =   3.75   38  44    4.03(  18)   10  17  |   20  24  |    3.68   23 |    3.78   20 |    3.89   21 |    3.89   21  pacific
  27  Seattle Kraken          =   3.58   34  48    3.99(  32)    8  18  |   14  28  |    3.54   27 |    3.54   27 |    3.80   24 |    3.86   23  pacific
  30  Anaheim Ducks           =   2.91   27  55    4.03(  17)    4  22  |   12  31  |    2.97   30 |    2.91   30 |    2.97   30 |    2.81   31  pacific
  32  San Jose Sharks         =   2.21   19  63    4.05(  10)    4  22  |    6  37  |    2.21   32 |    2.17   32 |    2.57   32 |    2.51   32  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ============================================================================================================== Edmonton Oilers 0.03 0.07 -0.20 0.20 0.37 @ Vancouver Canucks 102 51% 6.22 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.14 0.11 0.37 -0.02 -0.20 Edmonton Oilers 110 52% 6.22 POINT SPREADS AND MONEYLINES ADJUSTED FOR INDIVIDUAL TEAM HOME-AWAY EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.36 128 56% Edmonton Oilers endfile

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