United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2025-2026 ratings through results of 2025 DECEMBER 16 TUESDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11]
1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.78 24 9 3.96( 27) 5 4 | 9 4 | 4.86 1 | 5.04 1 | 4.55 1 | 5.08 1 central
2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.64 21 11 4.02( 13) 4 6 | 10 8 | 4.69 2 | 4.65 2 | 4.50 2 | 4.54 3 METROPOLITAN
3 Dallas Stars = 4.56 22 12 4.00( 15) 7 4 | 12 7 | 4.54 4 | 4.60 3 | 4.46 3 | 4.57 2 central
4 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.48 18 15 4.06( 6) 9 4 | 11 7 | 4.62 3 | 4.44 4 | 4.37 6 | 4.40 4 ATLANTIC
5 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.44 16 15 4.00( 16) 3 6 | 5 10 | 4.43 5 | 4.39 5 | 4.46 4 | 4.25 7 pacific
6 Washington Capitals = 4.30 18 15 4.04( 8) 4 7 | 9 10 | 4.41 6 | 4.30 6 | 4.19 10 | 4.36 5 METROPOLITAN
7 Edmonton Oilers = 4.27 16 18 3.97( 22) 2 7 | 6 8 | 4.24 9 | 4.18 10 | 4.39 5 | 4.21 8 pacific
8 Minnesota Wild = 4.26 20 14 3.96( 28) 6 4 | 11 5 | 4.31 7 | 4.29 7 | 4.16 13 | 4.31 6 central
9 Florida Panthers = 4.26 17 15 4.01( 14) 7 4 | 9 7 | 4.25 8 | 4.23 9 | 4.25 7 | 4.13 9 ATLANTIC
10 New Jersey Devils = 4.24 18 15 4.06( 5) 6 7 | 10 8 | 4.21 10 | 4.24 8 | 4.23 8 | 4.03 15 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11]
11 Winnipeg Jets = 4.10 15 17 3.93( 29) 2 7 | 3 10 | 4.05 13 | 4.04 14 | 4.18 12 | 4.09 11 central
12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.08 14 18 3.97( 24) 2 8 | 6 10 | 4.03 16 | 4.01 16 | 4.19 11 | 4.02 16 pacific
13 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 15 17 3.85( 32) 3 4 | 4 5 | 3.92 18 | 4.07 12 | 4.23 9 | 4.10 10 ATLANTIC
14 Ottawa Senators = 4.04 15 17 3.99( 18) 3 6 | 5 9 | 3.97 17 | 4.01 17 | 4.12 14 | 4.04 14 ATLANTIC
15 Anaheim Ducks = 4.01 20 14 4.00( 17) 7 5 | 10 6 | 4.20 11 | 4.06 13 | 3.80 23 | 3.92 20 pacific
16 New York Rangers = 4.00 16 19 4.03( 9) 4 9 | 5 11 | 3.90 19 | 3.99 18 | 4.11 15 | 4.05 12 METROPOLITAN
17 New York Islanders = 3.97 19 15 4.12( 1) 10 6 | 13 7 | 4.03 15 | 4.10 11 | 3.81 21 | 3.97 18 METROPOLITAN
18 Utah Mammoth = 3.95 16 19 3.98( 21) 3 6 | 6 10 | 3.88 21 | 3.95 20 | 4.02 16 | 4.00 17 central
19 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.94 17 15 4.05( 7) 5 9 | 5 13 | 4.05 14 | 3.99 19 | 3.82 20 | 4.04 13 METROPOLITAN
20 Montreal Canadiens = 3.93 17 16 3.97( 25) 2 6 | 6 11 | 3.87 22 | 3.94 21 | 3.99 17 | 3.89 21 ATLANTIC
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11]
21 Boston Bruins = 3.93 20 14 4.06( 4) 4 6 | 9 11 | 4.07 12 | 4.03 15 | 3.71 28 | 3.95 19 ATLANTIC
22 Detroit Red Wings = 3.84 19 15 3.90( 30) 3 4 | 8 6 | 3.88 20 | 3.86 22 | 3.80 24 | 3.84 22 ATLANTIC
23 Vancouver Canucks = 3.72 13 20 4.03( 11) 6 7 | 8 10 | 3.57 26 | 3.64 25 | 3.92 19 | 3.75 23 pacific
24 Nashville Predators = 3.69 13 19 4.03( 10) 2 8 | 4 13 | 3.66 24 | 3.63 27 | 3.81 22 | 3.61 28 central
25 St. Louis Blues = 3.68 12 22 3.89( 31) 2 4 | 4 8 | 3.48 31 | 3.47 30 | 3.95 18 | 3.50 30 central
26 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.68 14 19 4.08( 2) 5 9 | 8 13 | 3.62 25 | 3.68 24 | 3.77 26 | 3.73 25 METROPOLITAN
27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.67 14 18 4.02( 12) 6 4 | 9 7 | 3.57 27 | 3.70 23 | 3.77 25 | 3.74 24 ATLANTIC
28 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.63 14 18 3.96( 26) 4 4 | 6 11 | 3.75 23 | 3.64 26 | 3.55 30 | 3.70 26 METROPOLITAN
29 Calgary Flames = 3.57 13 21 3.98( 20) 4 5 | 6 10 | 3.48 30 | 3.52 29 | 3.73 27 | 3.69 27 pacific
30 San Jose Sharks = 3.49 17 17 4.07( 3) 6 7 | 10 10 | 3.52 28 | 3.59 28 | 3.35 31 | 3.57 29 pacific
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11]
31 Seattle Kraken = 3.47 12 19 3.98( 19) 2 7 | 7 9 | 3.48 29 | 3.43 31 | 3.57 29 | 3.46 31 pacific
32 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.32 13 20 3.97( 23) 1 6 | 7 11 | 3.43 32 | 3.30 32 | 3.25 32 | 3.44 32 central
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 4.05 ( 1) 8 4.05 ( 1) 4.0507( 0.3334) 4.0825( 0.3495) 4.0728( 0.3325) 3.9994( 0.3112) 2 central = 4.03 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 4.0401( 0.4856) 4.0270( 0.5139) 4.0398( 0.5902) 4.0459( 0.4070) 3 ATLANTIC = 4.01 4.03 ( 3) 8 4.03 ( 3) 4.0274( 0.2525) 4.0209( 0.3104) 4.0341( 0.2257) 4.0293( 0.2501) 4 pacific = 3.87 3.88 ( 4) 8 3.88 ( 4) 3.8818( 0.3740) 3.8696( 0.3963) 3.8532( 0.3530) 3.9253( 0.3913) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.3595) 4.0000( 0.3885) 4.0000( 0.3885) 4.0000( 0.3319) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 4.05 ( 1) 8 4.05 ( 1) 4.0507( 0.3334) 4.0825( 0.3495) 4.0728( 0.3325) 3.9994( 0.3112) 3 ATLANTIC = 4.01 4.03 ( 3) 8 4.03 ( 3) 4.0274( 0.2525) 4.0209( 0.3104) 4.0341( 0.2257) 4.0293( 0.2501) 2 central = 4.03 4.04 ( 2) 8 4.04 ( 2) 4.0401( 0.4856) 4.0270( 0.5139) 4.0398( 0.5902) 4.0459( 0.4070) 4 pacific = 3.87 3.88 ( 4) 8 3.88 ( 4) 3.8818( 0.3740) 3.8696( 0.3963) 3.8532( 0.3530) 3.9253( 0.3913) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.3595) 4.0000( 0.3885) 4.0000( 0.3885) 4.0000( 0.3319) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 METROPOLITAN = 4.03 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11] 2 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.64 21 11 4.02( 13) 4 6 | 10 8 | 4.69 2 | 4.65 2 | 4.50 2 | 4.54 3 METROPOLITAN 6 Washington Capitals = 4.30 18 15 4.04( 8) 4 7 | 9 10 | 4.41 6 | 4.30 6 | 4.19 10 | 4.36 5 METROPOLITAN 10 New Jersey Devils = 4.24 18 15 4.06( 5) 6 7 | 10 8 | 4.21 10 | 4.24 8 | 4.23 8 | 4.03 15 METROPOLITAN 16 New York Rangers = 4.00 16 19 4.03( 9) 4 9 | 5 11 | 3.90 19 | 3.99 18 | 4.11 15 | 4.05 12 METROPOLITAN 17 New York Islanders = 3.97 19 15 4.12( 1) 10 6 | 13 7 | 4.03 15 | 4.10 11 | 3.81 21 | 3.97 18 METROPOLITAN 19 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.94 17 15 4.05( 7) 5 9 | 5 13 | 4.05 14 | 3.99 19 | 3.82 20 | 4.04 13 METROPOLITAN 26 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.68 14 19 4.08( 2) 5 9 | 8 13 | 3.62 25 | 3.68 24 | 3.77 26 | 3.73 25 METROPOLITAN 28 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.63 14 18 3.96( 26) 4 4 | 6 11 | 3.75 23 | 3.64 26 | 3.55 30 | 3.70 26 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 ATLANTIC = 4.01 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11] 4 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.48 18 15 4.06( 6) 9 4 | 11 7 | 4.62 3 | 4.44 4 | 4.37 6 | 4.40 4 ATLANTIC 9 Florida Panthers = 4.26 17 15 4.01( 14) 7 4 | 9 7 | 4.25 8 | 4.23 9 | 4.25 7 | 4.13 9 ATLANTIC 13 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 15 17 3.85( 32) 3 4 | 4 5 | 3.92 18 | 4.07 12 | 4.23 9 | 4.10 10 ATLANTIC 14 Ottawa Senators = 4.04 15 17 3.99( 18) 3 6 | 5 9 | 3.97 17 | 4.01 17 | 4.12 14 | 4.04 14 ATLANTIC 20 Montreal Canadiens = 3.93 17 16 3.97( 25) 2 6 | 6 11 | 3.87 22 | 3.94 21 | 3.99 17 | 3.89 21 ATLANTIC 21 Boston Bruins = 3.93 20 14 4.06( 4) 4 6 | 9 11 | 4.07 12 | 4.03 15 | 3.71 28 | 3.95 19 ATLANTIC 22 Detroit Red Wings = 3.84 19 15 3.90( 30) 3 4 | 8 6 | 3.88 20 | 3.86 22 | 3.80 24 | 3.84 22 ATLANTIC 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.67 14 18 4.02( 12) 6 4 | 9 7 | 3.57 27 | 3.70 23 | 3.77 25 | 3.74 24 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 central = 4.03 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11] 1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.78 24 9 3.96( 27) 5 4 | 9 4 | 4.86 1 | 5.04 1 | 4.55 1 | 5.08 1 central 3 Dallas Stars = 4.56 22 12 4.00( 15) 7 4 | 12 7 | 4.54 4 | 4.60 3 | 4.46 3 | 4.57 2 central 8 Minnesota Wild = 4.26 20 14 3.96( 28) 6 4 | 11 5 | 4.31 7 | 4.29 7 | 4.16 13 | 4.31 6 central 11 Winnipeg Jets = 4.10 15 17 3.93( 29) 2 7 | 3 10 | 4.05 13 | 4.04 14 | 4.18 12 | 4.09 11 central 18 Utah Mammoth = 3.95 16 19 3.98( 21) 3 6 | 6 10 | 3.88 21 | 3.95 20 | 4.02 16 | 4.00 17 central 24 Nashville Predators = 3.69 13 19 4.03( 10) 2 8 | 4 13 | 3.66 24 | 3.63 27 | 3.81 22 | 3.61 28 central 25 St. Louis Blues = 3.68 12 22 3.89( 31) 2 4 | 4 8 | 3.48 31 | 3.47 30 | 3.95 18 | 3.50 30 central 32 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.32 13 20 3.97( 23) 1 6 | 7 11 | 3.43 32 | 3.30 32 | 3.25 32 | 3.44 32 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.87 NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.10] [ 0.12] [ 0.09] [ 0.11] [ 0.11] 5 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.44 16 15 4.00( 16) 3 6 | 5 10 | 4.43 5 | 4.39 5 | 4.46 4 | 4.25 7 pacific 7 Edmonton Oilers = 4.27 16 18 3.97( 22) 2 7 | 6 8 | 4.24 9 | 4.18 10 | 4.39 5 | 4.21 8 pacific 12 Los Angeles Kings = 4.08 14 18 3.97( 24) 2 8 | 6 10 | 4.03 16 | 4.01 16 | 4.19 11 | 4.02 16 pacific 15 Anaheim Ducks = 4.01 20 14 4.00( 17) 7 5 | 10 6 | 4.20 11 | 4.06 13 | 3.80 23 | 3.92 20 pacific 23 Vancouver Canucks = 3.72 13 20 4.03( 11) 6 7 | 8 10 | 3.57 26 | 3.64 25 | 3.92 19 | 3.75 23 pacific 29 Calgary Flames = 3.57 13 21 3.98( 20) 4 5 | 6 10 | 3.48 30 | 3.52 29 | 3.73 27 | 3.69 27 pacific 30 San Jose Sharks = 3.49 17 17 4.07( 3) 6 7 | 10 10 | 3.52 28 | 3.59 28 | 3.35 31 | 3.57 29 pacific 31 Seattle Kraken = 3.47 12 19 3.98( 19) 2 7 | 7 9 | 3.48 29 | 3.43 31 | 3.57 29 | 3.46 31 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.11 0.11 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 @ Florida Panthers 0.28 0.34 0.31 0.17 0.22 Los Angeles Kings 122 55% 2.99 2.71 5.69 2 Utah Mammoth 0.01 -0.12 0.00 0.11 0.06 @ Detroit Red Wings 101 50% 3.03 3.12 6.15 3 Carolina Hurricanes 0.85 0.92 0.93 0.59 0.82 @ Nashville Predators 180 64% 2.60 3.66 6.26 4 Winnipeg Jets 0.32 0.46 0.48 0.12 0.48 @ St. Louis Blues 125 56% 2.50 3.54 6.04 5 @ Vegas Golden Knights 0.31 0.33 0.24 0.33 0.33 New Jersey Devils 124 55% 3.10 2.87 5.96 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NHL 2025-2026 through games of 2025 December 16 Tuesday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.11 0.11 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL 1 @ Florida Panthers 0.04 0.11 0.07 -0.07 -0.01 Los Angeles Kings 103 51% 2.99 2.71 5.69 2 @ Detroit Red Wings 0.31 0.44 0.33 0.21 0.27 Utah Mammoth 125 56% 3.03 3.12 6.15 3 Carolina Hurricanes 1.38 1.45 1.47 1.12 1.36 @ Nashville Predators 255 72% 2.60 3.66 6.26 4 Winnipeg Jets 0.99 1.13 1.15 0.80 1.15 @ St. Louis Blues 197 66% 2.50 3.54 6.04 5 @ Vegas Golden Knights 0.13 0.16 0.06 0.15 0.15 New Jersey Devils 110 52% 3.10 2.87 5.96EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Florida Panthers 0.52 144 59% Los Angeles Kings 2 @ Detroit Red Wings 0.73 166 62% Utah Mammoth 3 Carolina Hurricanes 1.52 278 74% @ Nashville Predators 4 Winnipeg Jets 0.88 183 65% @ St. Louis Blues 5 @ Vegas Golden Knights 0.40 133 57% New Jersey Devils endfileTop_of_Page