United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2026-2027 ratings through results of 2026 OCTOBER 3 SATURDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .82 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
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The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
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The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file
where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into
account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
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NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.50 2 0 3.80( 31) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.46 1 | 4.42 2 | 4.58 1 | 4.54 1 central
2 Minnesota Wild = 4.34 2 0 3.99( 13) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.28 6 | 4.25 8 | 4.44 2 | 4.40 3 central
3 Utah Mammoth = 4.23 2 0 3.81( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.14 10 | 4.10 13 | 4.36 3 | 4.48 2 central
4 Edmonton Oilers = 4.22 2 1 3.81( 28) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.31 4 | 4.30 4 | 4.16 9 | 4.10 13 pacific
5 Montreal Canadiens = 4.18 1 1 4.28( 5) 1 1 | 1 1 | 4.19 9 | 4.18 9 | 4.19 7 | 4.05 14 ATLANTIC
6 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.13 1 1 3.64( 32) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.28 7 | 4.26 6 | 4.00 21 | 4.03 16 pacific
7 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.11 2 0 3.98( 15) 1 0 | 1 0 | 3.99 18 | 3.95 21 | 4.24 5 | 4.37 4 METROPOLITAN
8 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 1 2 3.90( 20) 0 2 | 0 2 | 4.07 13 | 4.08 14 | 4.11 12 | 3.92 21 ATLANTIC
9 Ottawa Senators = 4.08 1 0 4.27( 6) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.08 12 | 4.15 10 | 4.24 6 | 4.26 6 ATLANTIC
10 Florida Panthers = 4.07 1 1 4.20( 8) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.44 2 | 4.43 1 | 3.79 25 | 3.93 20 ATLANTIC
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
11 Boston Bruins = 4.06 2 1 4.08( 9) 0 1 | 1 1 | 3.90 23 | 3.88 22 | 4.26 4 | 4.15 12 ATLANTIC
12 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.04 1 1 4.01( 12) 0 0 | 1 1 | 4.27 8 | 4.29 5 | 3.81 24 | 3.87 22 ATLANTIC
13 San Jose Sharks = 4.04 2 0 3.85( 26) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.04 15 | 4.03 17 | 4.01 20 | 4.17 10 pacific
14 Anaheim Ducks = 4.03 1 0 4.32( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.03 16 | 4.11 12 | 4.13 11 | 4.26 5 pacific
15 Washington Capitals = 4.02 1 1 4.20( 7) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.28 5 | 4.26 7 | 3.75 27 | 3.99 19 METROPOLITAN
16 New York Rangers = 4.00 2 1 4.02( 11) 0 0 | 1 1 | 3.91 22 | 3.86 24 | 4.09 13 | 4.19 9 METROPOLITAN
17 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.00 1 1 3.89( 21) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.96 20 | 3.96 19 | 4.04 17 | 4.00 17 METROPOLITAN
18 Los Angeles Kings = 4.00 0 2 4.45( 1) 0 1 | 0 2 | 3.99 19 | 4.01 18 | 4.04 18 | 3.75 25 pacific
19 New York Islanders = 4.00 1 1 3.97( 16) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.93 21 | 3.88 23 | 4.06 16 | 4.20 7 METROPOLITAN
20 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.99 1 2 3.89( 22) 0 1 | 0 2 | 4.37 3 | 4.41 3 | 3.53 30 | 3.68 26 METROPOLITAN
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
21 Dallas Stars = 3.99 0 2 3.95( 17) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.13 11 | 4.15 11 | 3.86 22 | 3.66 29 central
22 St. Louis Blues = 3.98 1 1 4.43( 2) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.76 26 | 3.77 25 | 4.18 8 | 4.05 15 central
23 Buffalo Sabres = 3.93 1 1 3.81( 29) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 14 | 4.08 15 | 3.76 26 | 3.77 24 ATLANTIC
24 Nashville Predators = 3.92 1 1 3.98( 14) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.74 27 | 3.75 26 | 4.07 14 | 3.99 18 central
25 Seattle Kraken = 3.91 1 1 4.07( 10) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.67 29 | 3.64 28 | 4.07 15 | 4.15 11 pacific
26 Vancouver Canucks = 3.86 2 1 3.93( 18) 1 1 | 1 1 | 3.48 30 | 3.45 31 | 4.03 19 | 4.19 8 pacific
27 New Jersey Devils = 3.86 1 1 3.89( 23) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.02 17 | 4.07 16 | 3.46 31 | 3.67 27 METROPOLITAN
28 Detroit Red Wings = 3.79 0 1 3.82( 27) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.78 25 | 3.69 27 | 3.86 23 | 3.67 28 ATLANTIC
29 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.77 0 3 3.92( 19) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.87 24 | 3.96 20 | 3.41 32 | 3.54 31 METROPOLITAN
30 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 0 1 3.87( 25) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.71 28 | 3.64 29 | 4.14 10 | 3.87 23 central
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19]
31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.62 0 3 4.28( 4) 0 2 | 0 2 | 3.46 31 | 3.55 30 | 3.70 28 | 3.59 30 central
32 Calgary Flames = 3.54 0 2 3.88( 24) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.42 32 | 3.45 32 | 3.62 29 | 3.52 32 pacific
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Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 1 ATLANTIC = 4.04 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 4.0287( 0.1199) 4.0961( 0.2059) 4.0978( 0.2269) 4.0033( 0.2178) 3.9528( 0.1919) 2 central = 4.03 4.04 ( 1) 8 4.04 ( 1) 4.0353( 0.3041) 3.9596( 0.3421) 3.9529( 0.3175) 4.1667( 0.2955) 4.0711( 0.3682) 3 pacific = 3.99 3.97 ( 4) 8 3.97 ( 4) 3.9661( 0.2073) 3.9016( 0.3420) 3.9058( 0.3465) 4.0062( 0.1678) 4.0204( 0.2543) 4 METROPOLITAN = 3.98 3.97 ( 3) 8 3.97 ( 3) 3.9700( 0.1049) 4.0426( 0.1827) 4.0435( 0.1927) 3.8238( 0.3243) 3.9557( 0.2953) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.1933) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% RATING PREDICTOR GOLDEN_MEAN RECENT STRONG_RECENT 4 METROPOLITAN = 3.98 3.97 ( 3) 8 3.97 ( 3) 3.9700( 0.1049) 4.0426( 0.1827) 4.0435( 0.1927) 3.8238( 0.3243) 3.9557( 0.2953) 1 ATLANTIC = 4.04 4.03 ( 2) 8 4.03 ( 2) 4.0287( 0.1199) 4.0961( 0.2059) 4.0978( 0.2269) 4.0033( 0.2178) 3.9528( 0.1919) 2 central = 4.03 4.04 ( 1) 8 4.04 ( 1) 4.0353( 0.3041) 3.9596( 0.3421) 3.9529( 0.3175) 4.1667( 0.2955) 4.0711( 0.3682) 3 pacific = 3.99 3.97 ( 4) 8 3.97 ( 4) 3.9661( 0.2073) 3.9016( 0.3420) 3.9058( 0.3465) 4.0062( 0.1678) 4.0204( 0.2543) OVERALL 4.0000( 0.1933) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) 4.0000( 0.2752) __________________________________________________________________________________________________By Division
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 METROPOLITAN = 3.98 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 7 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.11 2 0 3.98( 15) 1 0 | 1 0 | 3.99 18 | 3.95 21 | 4.24 5 | 4.37 4 METROPOLITAN 15 Washington Capitals = 4.02 1 1 4.20( 7) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.28 5 | 4.26 7 | 3.75 27 | 3.99 19 METROPOLITAN 16 New York Rangers = 4.00 2 1 4.02( 11) 0 0 | 1 1 | 3.91 22 | 3.86 24 | 4.09 13 | 4.19 9 METROPOLITAN 17 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.00 1 1 3.89( 21) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.96 20 | 3.96 19 | 4.04 17 | 4.00 17 METROPOLITAN 19 New York Islanders = 4.00 1 1 3.97( 16) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.93 21 | 3.88 23 | 4.06 16 | 4.20 7 METROPOLITAN 20 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.99 1 2 3.89( 22) 0 1 | 0 2 | 4.37 3 | 4.41 3 | 3.53 30 | 3.68 26 METROPOLITAN 27 New Jersey Devils = 3.86 1 1 3.89( 23) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.02 17 | 4.07 16 | 3.46 31 | 3.67 27 METROPOLITAN 29 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.77 0 3 3.92( 19) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.87 24 | 3.96 20 | 3.41 32 | 3.54 31 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 4.04 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 5 Montreal Canadiens = 4.18 1 1 4.28( 5) 1 1 | 1 1 | 4.19 9 | 4.18 9 | 4.19 7 | 4.05 14 ATLANTIC 8 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.08 1 2 3.90( 20) 0 2 | 0 2 | 4.07 13 | 4.08 14 | 4.11 12 | 3.92 21 ATLANTIC 9 Ottawa Senators = 4.08 1 0 4.27( 6) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.08 12 | 4.15 10 | 4.24 6 | 4.26 6 ATLANTIC 10 Florida Panthers = 4.07 1 1 4.20( 8) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.44 2 | 4.43 1 | 3.79 25 | 3.93 20 ATLANTIC 11 Boston Bruins = 4.06 2 1 4.08( 9) 0 1 | 1 1 | 3.90 23 | 3.88 22 | 4.26 4 | 4.15 12 ATLANTIC 12 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.04 1 1 4.01( 12) 0 0 | 1 1 | 4.27 8 | 4.29 5 | 3.81 24 | 3.87 22 ATLANTIC 23 Buffalo Sabres = 3.93 1 1 3.81( 29) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 14 | 4.08 15 | 3.76 26 | 3.77 24 ATLANTIC 28 Detroit Red Wings = 3.79 0 1 3.82( 27) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.78 25 | 3.69 27 | 3.86 23 | 3.67 28 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 central = 4.03 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.50 2 0 3.80( 31) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.46 1 | 4.42 2 | 4.58 1 | 4.54 1 central 2 Minnesota Wild = 4.34 2 0 3.99( 13) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.28 6 | 4.25 8 | 4.44 2 | 4.40 3 central 3 Utah Mammoth = 4.23 2 0 3.81( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.14 10 | 4.10 13 | 4.36 3 | 4.48 2 central 21 Dallas Stars = 3.99 0 2 3.95( 17) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.13 11 | 4.15 11 | 3.86 22 | 3.66 29 central 22 St. Louis Blues = 3.98 1 1 4.43( 2) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.76 26 | 3.77 25 | 4.18 8 | 4.05 15 central 24 Nashville Predators = 3.92 1 1 3.98( 14) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.74 27 | 3.75 26 | 4.07 14 | 3.99 18 central 30 Winnipeg Jets = 3.71 0 1 3.87( 25) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.71 28 | 3.64 29 | 4.14 10 | 3.87 23 central 31 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.62 0 3 4.28( 4) 0 2 | 0 2 | 3.46 31 | 3.55 30 | 3.70 28 | 3.59 30 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 pacific = 3.99 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 4 Edmonton Oilers = 4.22 2 1 3.81( 28) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.31 4 | 4.30 4 | 4.16 9 | 4.10 13 pacific 6 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.13 1 1 3.64( 32) 0 0 | 0 1 | 4.28 7 | 4.26 6 | 4.00 21 | 4.03 16 pacific 13 San Jose Sharks = 4.04 2 0 3.85( 26) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.04 15 | 4.03 17 | 4.01 20 | 4.17 10 pacific 14 Anaheim Ducks = 4.03 1 0 4.32( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.03 16 | 4.11 12 | 4.13 11 | 4.26 5 pacific 18 Los Angeles Kings = 4.00 0 2 4.45( 1) 0 1 | 0 2 | 3.99 19 | 4.01 18 | 4.04 18 | 3.75 25 pacific 25 Seattle Kraken = 3.91 1 1 4.07( 10) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.67 29 | 3.64 28 | 4.07 15 | 4.15 11 pacific 26 Vancouver Canucks = 3.86 2 1 3.93( 18) 1 1 | 1 1 | 3.48 30 | 3.45 31 | 4.03 19 | 4.19 8 pacific 32 Calgary Flames = 3.54 0 2 3.88( 24) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.42 32 | 3.45 32 | 3.62 29 | 3.52 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================
Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 Utah Mammoth 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.11 @ New York Rangers 103 51% 3.79 4.84 8.63 -1.05 33% -205 2 @ Detroit Red Wings 0.26 0.26 0.24 -0.10 -0.01 Winnipeg Jets 120 55% 2.85 3.51 6.36 -0.66 39% -158 3 @ Anaheim Ducks 0.15 -0.22 -0.13 0.53 0.51 Florida Panthers 111 53% 3.11 1.25 4.36 1.86 77% 341 4 @ Seattle Kraken 0.55 0.44 0.38 0.64 0.81 Calgary Flames 147 60% 3.66 1.31 4.97 2.35 82% 455 5 Vegas Golden Knights 0.08 0.61 0.63 -0.21 -0.35 @ Vancouver Canucks 106 51% 4.62 4.24 8.86 0.38 57% 130 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 3 Saturday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 Utah Mammoth 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.76 @ New York Rangers 162 62% 3.46 5.17 8.63 -1.71 24% -309 2 Winnipeg Jets 1.27 1.27 1.29 1.63 1.54 @ Detroit Red Wings 236 70% 2.08 4.27 6.36 -2.19 19% -414 3 @ Anaheim Ducks 1.08 0.70 0.80 1.46 1.44 Florida Panthers 208 68% 3.58 0.79 4.36 2.79 85% 587 4 @ Seattle Kraken 3.75 3.64 3.57 3.83 4.01 Calgary Flames 994 91% 5.26 -0.29 4.97 5.55 96% 2255 5 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.80 0.27 0.26 1.09 1.23 Vegas Golden Knights 174 63% 5.06 3.80 8.86 1.26 70% 235EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 Utah Mammoth 1.02 201 67% @ New York Rangers 2 Winnipeg Jets 0.11 108 52% @ Detroit Red Wings 3 @ Anaheim Ducks 0.69 161 62% Florida Panthers 4 @ Seattle Kraken 2.62 532 84% Calgary Flames 5 @ Vancouver Canucks 2.11 395 80% Vegas Golden Knights endfileTop_of_Page