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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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NHL 2018-2019 ratings through results of 2019 MAY 21 TUESDAY - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Predictions_with_Totals

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
   1  Boston Bruins           =   4.69   61  38    4.01(  16)   21  13  |   35  23  |    4.65    2 |    4.64    2 |    5.15    1  ATLANTIC
   2  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.54   62  24    3.99(  30)   15  13  |   28  17  |    4.94    1 |    4.99    1 |    4.02   13  ATLANTIC
   3  St. Louis Blues         =   4.40   57  44    4.03(   7)   21  15  |   35  24  |    4.38    5 |    4.33    8 |    4.74    2  central
   4  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.30   53  39    4.06(   1)   18  18  |   25  27  |    4.38    6 |    4.39    6 |    3.99   16  METROPOLITAN
   5  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.27   54  43    4.05(   2)   16  25  |   25  32  |    4.29    9 |    4.21   13 |    4.48    4  METROPOLITAN
   6  Nashville Predators     =   4.27   49  39    4.01(  19)   10  14  |   23  24  |    4.29    8 |    4.38    7 |    3.97   18  central
   7  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.26   49  39    4.02(  13)   18  11  |   22  23  |    4.34    7 |    4.40    4 |    3.86   23  central
   8  San Jose Sharks         =   4.25   56  46    4.00(  26)   12  15  |   25  26  |    4.29   10 |    4.28   10 |    4.13   11  pacific
   9  New York Islanders      =   4.24   52  38    4.02(  15)   13  17  |   23  27  |    4.21   13 |    4.21   12 |    4.38    5  METROPOLITAN
  10  Washington Capitals     =   4.23   51  38    4.01(  18)   15  18  |   22  27  |    4.27   11 |    4.33    9 |    3.93   19  METROPOLITAN
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
  11  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.21   49  40    4.05(   4)   15  20  |   24  24  |    4.41    4 |    4.40    5 |    3.48   27  ATLANTIC
  12  Calgary Flames          =   4.21   51  36    3.97(  31)   14  11  |   18  20  |    4.50    3 |    4.40    3 |    3.28   31  pacific
  13  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.19   44  42    4.01(  20)   17  17  |   23  23  |    4.26   12 |    4.23   11 |    3.99   15  METROPOLITAN
  14  Dallas Stars            =   4.16   50  45    4.05(   3)   21  20  |   26  27  |    4.16   14 |    4.18   15 |    4.09   12  central
  15  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.07   44  38    4.00(  27)   12  16  |   20  21  |    4.08   17 |    3.99   17 |    4.31    7  ATLANTIC
  16  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.06   46  43    4.01(  23)   12  20  |   18  27  |    4.15   15 |    4.18   14 |    3.48   28  pacific
  17  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.03   45  49    4.04(   5)   10  25  |   22  34  |    4.09   16 |    4.05   16 |    3.87   22  central
  18  Florida Panthers        =   3.90   36  46    4.01(  22)   11  17  |   17  28  |    3.89   18 |    3.86   18 |    4.01   14  ATLANTIC
  19  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.82   35  47    3.99(  29)   12  13  |   17  25  |    3.54   26 |    3.65   23 |    4.62    3  pacific
  20  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.81   36  46    4.02(  12)    9  19  |   16  28  |    3.70   22 |    3.71   22 |    4.14   10  central
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
  21  Minnesota Wild          =   3.78   37  45    4.02(  11)   12  16  |   19  26  |    3.80   20 |    3.84   19 |    3.50   26  central
  22  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.77   37  45    4.02(  14)    6  24  |   13  33  |    3.80   21 |    3.82   20 |    3.51   25  METROPOLITAN
  23  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.76   39  43    4.00(  28)   11  14  |   17  25  |    3.80   19 |    3.81   21 |    3.46   29  pacific
  24  New Jersey Devils       =   3.72   31  51    4.02(  10)    5  25  |   13  33  |    3.52   27 |    3.55   26 |    4.26    8  METROPOLITAN
  25  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.72   33  49    4.01(  17)    8  20  |   15  30  |    3.56   24 |    3.47   28 |    4.37    6  ATLANTIC
  26  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.69   35  47    4.00(  25)    9  17  |   14  29  |    3.55   25 |    3.64   24 |    3.92   20  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.67   31  51    4.00(  24)    7  18  |   14  29  |    3.47   28 |    3.50   27 |    4.15    9  pacific
  28  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.66   35  47    4.01(  21)    8  17  |   16  27  |    3.57   23 |    3.59   25 |    3.88   21  pacific
  29  New York Rangers        =   3.58   32  50    4.03(   9)   12  18  |   17  29  |    3.45   29 |    3.39   29 |    3.99   17  METROPOLITAN
  30  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.45   32  50    4.03(   8)   11  17  |   16  29  |    3.41   30 |    3.37   30 |    3.64   24  ATLANTIC
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
  31  Ottawa Senators         =   3.27   29  53    4.04(   6)    7  21  |   14  31  |    3.23   31 |    3.22   31 |    3.40   30  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings


There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  central                 =   4.12       4.10  (  1)      7       4.10  (  1)
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.08       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.98       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   4  pacific                 =   3.86       3.89  (  4)      8       3.89  (  4)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.98       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.08       4.04  (  2)      8       4.04  (  2)
   1  central                 =   4.12       4.10  (  1)      7       4.10  (  1)
   4  pacific                 =   3.86       3.89  (  4)      8       3.89  (  4)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  ATLANTIC                =   3.98       3.98  (  3)   TEAMS=  8       3.98  (  3)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
   1  Boston Bruins           =   4.69   61  38    4.01(  16)   21  13  |   35  23  |    4.65    2 |    4.64    2 |    5.15    1  ATLANTIC
   2  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.54   62  24    3.99(  30)   15  13  |   28  17  |    4.94    1 |    4.99    1 |    4.02   13  ATLANTIC
  11  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.21   49  40    4.05(   4)   15  20  |   24  24  |    4.41    4 |    4.40    5 |    3.48   27  ATLANTIC
  15  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.07   44  38    4.00(  27)   12  16  |   20  21  |    4.08   17 |    3.99   17 |    4.31    7  ATLANTIC
  18  Florida Panthers        =   3.90   36  46    4.01(  22)   11  17  |   17  28  |    3.89   18 |    3.86   18 |    4.01   14  ATLANTIC
  25  Buffalo Sabres          =   3.72   33  49    4.01(  17)    8  20  |   15  30  |    3.56   24 |    3.47   28 |    4.37    6  ATLANTIC
  30  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.45   32  50    4.03(   8)   11  17  |   16  29  |    3.41   30 |    3.37   30 |    3.64   24  ATLANTIC
  31  Ottawa Senators         =   3.27   29  53    4.04(   6)    7  21  |   14  31  |    3.23   31 |    3.22   31 |    3.40   30  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.08       4.04  (  2)   TEAMS=  8       4.04  (  2)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
   4  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   4.30   53  39    4.06(   1)   18  18  |   25  27  |    4.38    6 |    4.39    6 |    3.99   16  METROPOLITAN
   5  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.27   54  43    4.05(   2)   16  25  |   25  32  |    4.29    9 |    4.21   13 |    4.48    4  METROPOLITAN
   9  New York Islanders      =   4.24   52  38    4.02(  15)   13  17  |   23  27  |    4.21   13 |    4.21   12 |    4.38    5  METROPOLITAN
  10  Washington Capitals     =   4.23   51  38    4.01(  18)   15  18  |   22  27  |    4.27   11 |    4.33    9 |    3.93   19  METROPOLITAN
  13  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   4.19   44  42    4.01(  20)   17  17  |   23  23  |    4.26   12 |    4.23   11 |    3.99   15  METROPOLITAN
  22  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.77   37  45    4.02(  14)    6  24  |   13  33  |    3.80   21 |    3.82   20 |    3.51   25  METROPOLITAN
  24  New Jersey Devils       =   3.72   31  51    4.02(  10)    5  25  |   13  33  |    3.52   27 |    3.55   26 |    4.26    8  METROPOLITAN
  29  New York Rangers        =   3.58   32  50    4.03(   9)   12  18  |   17  29  |    3.45   29 |    3.39   29 |    3.99   17  METROPOLITAN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  central                 =   4.12       4.10  (  1)   TEAMS=  7       4.10  (  1)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
   3  St. Louis Blues         =   4.40   57  44    4.03(   7)   21  15  |   35  24  |    4.38    5 |    4.33    8 |    4.74    2  central
   6  Nashville Predators     =   4.27   49  39    4.01(  19)   10  14  |   23  24  |    4.29    8 |    4.38    7 |    3.97   18  central
   7  Winnipeg Jets           =   4.26   49  39    4.02(  13)   18  11  |   22  23  |    4.34    7 |    4.40    4 |    3.86   23  central
  14  Dallas Stars            =   4.16   50  45    4.05(   3)   21  20  |   26  27  |    4.16   14 |    4.18   15 |    4.09   12  central
  17  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.03   45  49    4.04(   5)   10  25  |   22  34  |    4.09   16 |    4.05   16 |    3.87   22  central
  20  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.81   36  46    4.02(  12)    9  19  |   16  28  |    3.70   22 |    3.71   22 |    4.14   10  central
  21  Minnesota Wild          =   3.78   37  45    4.02(  11)   12  16  |   19  26  |    3.80   20 |    3.84   19 |    3.50   26  central
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  pacific                 =   3.86       3.89  (  4)   TEAMS=  8       3.89  (  4)
NHL 2018-2019 through games of 2019 May 21 Tuesday - Stanley Cup Playoffs - Conference Finals                                                   
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.29]                                               [  0.30]       [  0.29]       [  0.30]
   8  San Jose Sharks         =   4.25   56  46    4.00(  26)   12  15  |   25  26  |    4.29   10 |    4.28   10 |    4.13   11  pacific
  12  Calgary Flames          =   4.21   51  36    3.97(  31)   14  11  |   18  20  |    4.50    3 |    4.40    3 |    3.28   31  pacific
  16  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.06   46  43    4.01(  23)   12  20  |   18  27  |    4.15   15 |    4.18   14 |    3.48   28  pacific
  19  Anaheim Ducks           =   3.82   35  47    3.99(  29)   12  13  |   17  25  |    3.54   26 |    3.65   23 |    4.62    3  pacific
  23  Arizona Coyotes         =   3.76   39  43    4.00(  28)   11  14  |   17  25  |    3.80   19 |    3.81   21 |    3.46   29  pacific
  26  Edmonton Oilers         =   3.69   35  47    4.00(  25)    9  17  |   14  29  |    3.55   25 |    3.64   24 |    3.92   20  pacific
  27  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.67   31  51    4.00(  24)    7  18  |   14  29  |    3.47   28 |    3.50   27 |    4.15    9  pacific
  28  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.66   35  47    4.01(  21)    8  17  |   16  27  |    3.57   23 |    3.59   25 |    3.88   21  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
endfile

Predictions_with_Totals

These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _ both teams in lower case _ means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _ MONEY=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================== BOSTON BRUINS 0.58 0.57 0.60 0.71 st. louis blues 149 60% 4.67 EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG 1 @ Boston Bruins 0.43 135 57% St. Louis Blues endfile

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