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Jeff Sagarin'stm NHL Hockey Ratings


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my ratings are no longer updated on the USA Today website

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All Contents Copyright © 2026 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights Reserved.


NHL 2026-2027 ratings through results of 2026 OCTOBER 2 FRIDAY

this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
                             (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
                                 (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
                             (3) teams listed by DIVISION
                                 (listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  .50  goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by  .82  goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .17 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
      In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
      illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

just click on "Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines" and it will take you to the daily predictions at the bottom of the file where you'll also see the additional set of EXPERIMENTAL predictions which are the basic predictions that are adjusted to take into account each team's tendencies of performance at home and away along with the extra picks column of STRONG RECENT
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.19]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]
   1  Colorado Avalanche      =   4.41    1   0    3.79(  25)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.43    1 |    4.43    1 |    4.29    4 |    4.33    5  central
   2  Washington Capitals     =   4.28    1   0    4.37(   2)    1   0  |    1   0  |    4.30    4 |    4.32    4 |    4.26    7 |    4.32    6  METROPOLITAN
   3  Florida Panthers        =   4.25    1   1    4.28(   8)    1   0  |    1   0  |    4.43    2 |    4.43    2 |    3.98   18 |    3.98   18  ATLANTIC
   4  Tampa Bay Lightning     =   4.23    0   1    4.19(  10)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.26    7 |    4.21    9 |    3.50   32 |    3.58   31  ATLANTIC
   5  Minnesota Wild          =   4.23    1   0    3.88(  19)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.25    8 |    4.26    6 |    4.15   11 |    4.21    9  central
   6  Edmonton Oilers         =   4.21    1   1    3.87(  20)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.28    5 |    4.28    5 |    4.02   15 |    3.96   19  pacific
   7  Carolina Hurricanes     =   4.18    0   2    4.08(  14)    0   2  |    0   2  |    4.38    3 |    4.41    3 |    3.82   23 |    3.74   24  METROPOLITAN
   8  Vegas Golden Knights    =   4.18    1   1    3.72(  27)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.27    6 |    4.26    7 |    3.95   19 |    4.00   16  pacific
   9  Montreal Canadiens      =   4.17    1   0    4.29(   6)    0   0  |    1   0  |    4.20    9 |    4.22    8 |    4.15   10 |    4.16   12  ATLANTIC
  10  Dallas Stars            =   4.13    0   1    3.59(  29)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.15   10 |    4.11   12 |    3.71   28 |    3.61   30  central
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.19]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]
  11  Toronto Maple Leafs     =   4.11    1   1    3.81(  24)    0   1  |    0   1  |    4.09   13 |    4.09   13 |    3.99   17 |    3.96   20  ATLANTIC
  12  Boston Bruins           =   4.09    2   0    3.84(  22)    0   0  |    0   0  |    3.92   21 |    3.89   22 |    4.42    2 |    4.27    8  ATLANTIC
  13  Utah Mammoth            =   4.09    1   0    3.63(  28)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.11   11 |    4.12   11 |    4.36    3 |    4.39    2  central
  14  New Jersey Devils       =   4.07    1   0    3.78(  26)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.10   12 |    4.12   10 |    3.74   26 |    4.02   14  METROPOLITAN
  15  Buffalo Sabres          =   4.04    0   1    4.16(  11)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.06   14 |    4.04   17 |    3.81   24 |    3.69   27  ATLANTIC
  16  Ottawa Senators         =   4.03    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |    4.06   15 |    4.05   15 |    4.01   16 |    3.99   17  ATLANTIC
  17  New York Rangers        =   4.01    2   1    4.09(  13)    1   0  |    1   1  |    3.90   23 |    3.85   23 |    4.03   14 |    4.12   13  METROPOLITAN
  18  Anaheim Ducks           =   4.00    1   0    4.37(   3)    1   0  |    1   0  |    4.03   16 |    4.05   14 |    4.11   12 |    4.18   10  pacific
  19  San Jose Sharks         =   3.99    1   0    4.06(  15)    1   0  |    1   0  |    4.02   17 |    4.04   16 |    4.10   13 |    4.16   11  pacific
  20  Los Angeles Kings       =   3.98    0   1    4.59(   1)    0   1  |    0   1  |    4.00   18 |    3.98   20 |    3.77   25 |    3.66   28  pacific
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.19]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]
  21  Columbus Blue Jackets   =   3.97    1   0    3.85(  21)    0   0  |    1   0  |    4.00   19 |    4.01   18 |    4.20    9 |    4.29    7  METROPOLITAN
  22  Philadelphia Flyers     =   3.96    0   2    4.01(  17)    0   0  |    0   1  |    3.92   22 |    3.98   21 |    3.63   29 |    3.70   26  METROPOLITAN
  23  Pittsburgh Penguins     =   3.94    1   0    4.15(  12)    0   0  |    0   0  |    3.97   20 |    4.00   19 |    4.62    1 |    4.47    1  METROPOLITAN
  24  Vancouver Canucks       =   3.87    1   1    4.21(   9)    1   1  |    1   1  |    3.42   32 |    3.42   31 |    3.94   20 |    4.01   15  pacific
  25  New York Islanders      =   3.82    0   1    4.29(   7)    0   0  |    0   1  |    3.85   24 |    3.82   25 |    3.88   21 |    3.88   22  METROPOLITAN
  26  Chicago Blackhawks      =   3.81    0   2    4.32(   4)    0   1  |    0   2  |    3.49   30 |    3.55   30 |    3.56   31 |    3.63   29  central
  27  St. Louis Blues         =   3.77    1   0    4.31(   5)    1   0  |    1   0  |    3.80   25 |    3.83   24 |    4.29    6 |    4.36    4  central
  28  Detroit Red Wings       =   3.75    0   1    3.82(  23)    0   0  |    0   0  |    3.78   26 |    3.75   26 |    3.73   27 |    3.71   25  ATLANTIC
  29  Nashville Predators     =   3.69    0   1    4.04(  16)    0   1  |    0   1  |    3.72   27 |    3.70   27 |    3.85   22 |    3.77   23  central
  30  Winnipeg Jets           =   3.68    0   1    3.91(  18)    0   0  |    0   1  |    3.70   28 |    3.68   29 |    4.26    8 |    3.91   21  central
NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG_RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.19]                                               [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]       [  0.19]
  31  Seattle Kraken          =   3.64    1   0    3.59(  30)    0   0  |    0   0  |    3.67   29 |    3.69   28 |    4.29    5 |    4.37    3  pacific
  32  Calgary Flames          =   3.40    0   1    3.46(  31)    0   0  |    0   0  |    3.43   31 |    3.41   32 |    3.58   30 |    3.58   32  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT          STRONG_RECENT
   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.10       4.08  (  1)      8       4.08  (  1)   4.0839( 0.1578)   4.0997( 0.2024)   4.0834( 0.2097)   3.9493( 0.2768)   3.9156( 0.2393)
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.02       4.03  (  2)      8       4.03  (  2)   4.0298( 0.1446)   4.0519( 0.1946)   4.0634( 0.2107)   4.0234( 0.3258)   4.0676( 0.2826)
   3  central                 =   3.96       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)   3.9761( 0.2729)   3.9590( 0.3250)   3.9608( 0.3139)   4.0578( 0.3079)   4.0268( 0.3351)
   4  pacific                 =   3.94       3.91  (  4)      8       3.91  (  4)   3.9101( 0.2721)   3.8895( 0.3463)   3.8924( 0.3468)   3.9695( 0.2206)   3.9901( 0.2664)
       OVERALL                                                                      4.0000( 0.2195)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)
      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%         RATING          PREDICTOR         GOLDEN_MEAN         RECENT          STRONG_RECENT
   2  METROPOLITAN            =   4.02       4.03  (  2)      8       4.03  (  2)   4.0298( 0.1446)   4.0519( 0.1946)   4.0634( 0.2107)   4.0234( 0.3258)   4.0676( 0.2826)
   1  ATLANTIC                =   4.10       4.08  (  1)      8       4.08  (  1)   4.0839( 0.1578)   4.0997( 0.2024)   4.0834( 0.2097)   3.9493( 0.2768)   3.9156( 0.2393)
   3  central                 =   3.96       3.98  (  3)      8       3.98  (  3)   3.9761( 0.2729)   3.9590( 0.3250)   3.9608( 0.3139)   4.0578( 0.3079)   4.0268( 0.3351)
   4  pacific                 =   3.94       3.91  (  4)      8       3.91  (  4)   3.9101( 0.2721)   3.8895( 0.3463)   3.8924( 0.3468)   3.9695( 0.2206)   3.9901( 0.2664)
       OVERALL                                                                      4.0000( 0.2195)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)   4.0000( 0.2749)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 METROPOLITAN = 4.02 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 2 Washington Capitals = 4.28 1 0 4.37( 2) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.30 4 | 4.32 4 | 4.26 7 | 4.32 6 METROPOLITAN 7 Carolina Hurricanes = 4.18 0 2 4.08( 14) 0 2 | 0 2 | 4.38 3 | 4.41 3 | 3.82 23 | 3.74 24 METROPOLITAN 14 New Jersey Devils = 4.07 1 0 3.78( 26) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.10 12 | 4.12 10 | 3.74 26 | 4.02 14 METROPOLITAN 17 New York Rangers = 4.01 2 1 4.09( 13) 1 0 | 1 1 | 3.90 23 | 3.85 23 | 4.03 14 | 4.12 13 METROPOLITAN 21 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.97 1 0 3.85( 21) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.00 19 | 4.01 18 | 4.20 9 | 4.29 7 METROPOLITAN 22 Philadelphia Flyers = 3.96 0 2 4.01( 17) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.92 22 | 3.98 21 | 3.63 29 | 3.70 26 METROPOLITAN 23 Pittsburgh Penguins = 3.94 1 0 4.15( 12) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.97 20 | 4.00 19 | 4.62 1 | 4.47 1 METROPOLITAN 25 New York Islanders = 3.82 0 1 4.29( 7) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.85 24 | 3.82 25 | 3.88 21 | 3.88 22 METROPOLITAN _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC = 4.10 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 3 Florida Panthers = 4.25 1 1 4.28( 8) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.43 2 | 4.43 2 | 3.98 18 | 3.98 18 ATLANTIC 4 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.23 0 1 4.19( 10) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.26 7 | 4.21 9 | 3.50 32 | 3.58 31 ATLANTIC 9 Montreal Canadiens = 4.17 1 0 4.29( 6) 0 0 | 1 0 | 4.20 9 | 4.22 8 | 4.15 10 | 4.16 12 ATLANTIC 11 Toronto Maple Leafs = 4.11 1 1 3.81( 24) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.09 13 | 4.09 13 | 3.99 17 | 3.96 20 ATLANTIC 12 Boston Bruins = 4.09 2 0 3.84( 22) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.92 21 | 3.89 22 | 4.42 2 | 4.27 8 ATLANTIC 15 Buffalo Sabres = 4.04 0 1 4.16( 11) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 14 | 4.04 17 | 3.81 24 | 3.69 27 ATLANTIC 16 Ottawa Senators = 4.03 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.06 15 | 4.05 15 | 4.01 16 | 3.99 17 ATLANTIC 28 Detroit Red Wings = 3.75 0 1 3.82( 23) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.78 26 | 3.75 26 | 3.73 27 | 3.71 25 ATLANTIC _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 central = 3.96 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 1 Colorado Avalanche = 4.41 1 0 3.79( 25) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.43 1 | 4.43 1 | 4.29 4 | 4.33 5 central 5 Minnesota Wild = 4.23 1 0 3.88( 19) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.25 8 | 4.26 6 | 4.15 11 | 4.21 9 central 10 Dallas Stars = 4.13 0 1 3.59( 29) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.15 10 | 4.11 12 | 3.71 28 | 3.61 30 central 13 Utah Mammoth = 4.09 1 0 3.63( 28) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.11 11 | 4.12 11 | 4.36 3 | 4.39 2 central 26 Chicago Blackhawks = 3.81 0 2 4.32( 4) 0 1 | 0 2 | 3.49 30 | 3.55 30 | 3.56 31 | 3.63 29 central 27 St. Louis Blues = 3.77 1 0 4.31( 5) 1 0 | 1 0 | 3.80 25 | 3.83 24 | 4.29 6 | 4.36 4 central 29 Nashville Predators = 3.69 0 1 4.04( 16) 0 1 | 0 1 | 3.72 27 | 3.70 27 | 3.85 22 | 3.77 23 central 30 Winnipeg Jets = 3.68 0 1 3.91( 18) 0 0 | 0 1 | 3.70 28 | 3.68 29 | 4.26 8 | 3.91 21 central _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 pacific = 3.94 NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT | STRONG_RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] [ 0.19] 6 Edmonton Oilers = 4.21 1 1 3.87( 20) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.28 5 | 4.28 5 | 4.02 15 | 3.96 19 pacific 8 Vegas Golden Knights = 4.18 1 1 3.72( 27) 0 0 | 0 0 | 4.27 6 | 4.26 7 | 3.95 19 | 4.00 16 pacific 18 Anaheim Ducks = 4.00 1 0 4.37( 3) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.03 16 | 4.05 14 | 4.11 12 | 4.18 10 pacific 19 San Jose Sharks = 3.99 1 0 4.06( 15) 1 0 | 1 0 | 4.02 17 | 4.04 16 | 4.10 13 | 4.16 11 pacific 20 Los Angeles Kings = 3.98 0 1 4.59( 1) 0 1 | 0 1 | 4.00 18 | 3.98 20 | 3.77 25 | 3.66 28 pacific 24 Vancouver Canucks = 3.87 1 1 4.21( 9) 1 1 | 1 1 | 3.42 32 | 3.42 31 | 3.94 20 | 4.01 15 pacific 31 Seattle Kraken = 3.64 1 0 3.59( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.67 29 | 3.69 28 | 4.29 5 | 4.37 3 pacific 32 Calgary Flames = 3.40 0 1 3.46( 31) 0 0 | 0 0 | 3.43 31 | 3.41 32 | 3.58 30 | 3.58 32 pacific _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ These are the "regular method". _ HOME or CLOSEBY (c) is denoted _ by an "@" next to the HOME or CLOSER team _ An "n" for NEUTRAL location will appear if a neutral game Rating Favorite _ Strong MONEYLINE=odds to 100 _ FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _ ====================================================================================================================================

Predictions_with_Totals_and_Moneylines

NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 New Jersey Devils 0.06 0.06 0.11 -0.32 -0.05 @ New York Islanders 105 51% 2.63 2.26 4.88 0.37 56% 129 2 Carolina Hurricanes 0.04 0.28 0.25 0.00 -0.15 @ Philadelphia Flyers 103 51% 2.40 2.82 5.22 -0.41 43% -133 3 @ Buffalo Sabres 0.41 0.76 0.67 0.44 0.24 Chicago Blackhawks 133 57% 4.00 3.26 7.26 0.75 63% 168 4 @ Toronto Maple Leafs 0.26 0.22 0.23 0.17 0.15 Ottawa Senators 120 55% 3.04 2.78 5.81 0.26 55% 120 5 Montreal Canadiens 0.05 0.05 0.03 -0.66 -0.50 @ Pittsburgh Penguins 103 51% 4.14 2.61 6.75 1.53 73% 277 6 @ Tampa Bay Lightning 0.14 0.14 0.08 -0.57 -0.56 Washington Capitals 110 52% 3.17 5.20 8.37 -2.03 21% -375 7 @ Columbus Blue Jacket 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.02 0.09 Utah Mammoth 105 51% 3.32 3.88 7.20 -0.56 40% -147 8 Dallas Stars 0.25 0.25 0.23 -0.33 -0.34 @ Nashville Predators 119 54% 3.06 2.42 5.48 0.65 61% 157 9 @ Minnesota Wild 0.32 0.52 0.56 -0.08 0.13 Boston Bruins 125 56% 2.53 2.95 5.48 -0.43 43% -135 10 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.82 0.82 0.79 0.19 0.15 St. Louis Blues 176 64% 3.66 3.74 7.40 -0.07 49% -105 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 11 @ Edmonton Oilers 0.76 0.80 0.78 -0.09 -0.23 Seattle Kraken 169 63% 3.70 4.70 8.40 -1.01 33% -199 12 @ San Jose Sharks 0.21 0.20 0.25 0.52 0.69 Los Angeles Kings 115 54% 5.19 4.10 9.29 1.09 68% 210 13 @ Vancouver Canucks 0.66 0.17 0.19 0.55 0.62 Calgary Flames 158 61% 4.90 3.41 8.31 1.49 73% 271 EXPERIMENTAL NUMBERS INVOLVING HOME-AWAY ADJUSTMENTS FOR EACH TEAM NHL 2026-2027 through games of 2026 October 2 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 1 New Jersey Devils 0.88 0.88 0.93 0.50 0.77 @ New York Islanders 184 65% 2.21 2.67 4.88 -0.45 42% -137 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1.78 2.02 1.99 1.75 1.60 @ Philadelphia Flyers 324 76% 1.53 3.69 5.22 -2.16 20% -407 3 @ Buffalo Sabres 1.79 2.14 2.05 1.82 1.62 Chicago Blackhawks 325 76% 4.69 2.57 7.26 2.13 80% 399 4 Ottawa Senators 0.03 0.08 0.07 0.13 0.14 @ Toronto Maple Leafs 102 51% 2.92 2.89 5.81 0.03 51% 102 5 @ Pittsburgh Penguins 0.33 0.33 0.34 1.03 0.87 Montreal Canadiens 126 56% 4.32 2.42 6.75 1.90 78% 349 6 Washington Capitals 4.15 4.15 4.21 4.86 4.85 @ Tampa Bay Lightning 1218 92% 1.03 7.34 8.37 -6.31 3% -2926 7 @ Columbus Blue Jacket 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.00 1.07 Utah Mammoth 205 67% 3.81 3.39 7.20 0.42 57% 134 8 Dallas Stars 0.56 0.56 0.54 -0.01 -0.03 @ Nashville Predators 148 60% 2.91 2.57 5.48 0.33 56% 126 9 Boston Bruins 0.32 0.13 0.08 0.73 0.52 @ Minnesota Wild 125 56% 2.20 3.27 5.48 -1.07 33% -207 10 @ Colorado Avalanche 0.50 0.50 0.47 -0.13 -0.17 St. Louis Blues 141 59% 3.50 3.90 7.40 -0.40 43% -132 FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL HMARG WIN% MONEY 11 Seattle Kraken 3.70 3.65 3.67 4.55 4.68 @ Edmonton Oilers 966 91% 1.47 6.93 8.40 -5.46 4% -2181 12 @ San Jose Sharks 4.53 4.53 4.57 4.84 5.01 Los Angeles Kings 1463 94% 7.35 1.94 9.29 5.41 96% 2140 13 @ Vancouver Canucks 1.62 1.14 1.16 1.51 1.58 Calgary Flames 294 75% 5.38 2.93 8.31 2.45 83% 483
EIGENVECTOR Analysis            eigen MONEY=odds to 100  EPCT%=confidence
          EFAVORITE           ESPREAD EODDS EPCT%    EUNDERDOG
    1    New Jersey Devils      1.58   286   74%  @ New York Islanders
    2    Carolina Hurricanes    0.02   101   50%  @ Philadelphia Flyers
    3  @ Buffalo Sabres         2.16   407   80%    Chicago Blackhawks
    4  @ Toronto Maple Leafs    0.04   103   51%    Ottawa Senators
    5  @ Pittsburgh Penguins    1.04   203   67%    Montreal Canadiens
    6    Washington Capitals    2.98   652   87%  @ Tampa Bay Lightning
    7    Utah Mammoth           0.25   119   54%  @ Columbus Blue Jacket
    8  @ Nashville Predators    0.62   154   61%    Dallas Stars
    9    Boston Bruins          1.09   210   68%  @ Minnesota Wild
   10    St. Louis Blues        0.03   102   51%  @ Colorado Avalanche
   11  @ Edmonton Oilers        0.79   172   63%    Seattle Kraken
   12  @ San Jose Sharks        2.65   542   84%    Los Angeles Kings
   13  @ Vancouver Canucks      3.93  1082   92%    Calgary Flames
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